Last Updated on October 9, 2020

USDMXN Outlook & Technical Analysis

Introduction

We can see that the Mexican peso had been healthy looking at the Binary Cent trading platform amid the coronavirus pandemic that affected the U.S. economy as they were hit by the second waves of the epidemic at the early stage of recovery. 

The currency was affected by losing its value to other currencies due to other factors like the trade war with some countries and internal crises within the country’s system.

Fundamentals 

Mexico Fundamentals 

Monetary Policies:

The Mexican peso had been trading favourably against the U.S. dollar for the past weeks since the recovery process started amid the coronavirus pandemic. 

Investors and Institutions are of interest as they await the Central Banks’ monetary policies as they plan to cut down the rate to 4.25% (25 bps) as inflation rises. However, the Mexican central bank had earlier announced its plan to extend and strengthen the channels for credit and access to liquidity in the finical system.

The U.S.

Durable Goods Orders m/m:

 The Census Bureau collates the factories’ reports on the new orders placed on durable goods like automobiles, appliances, computers, and other hard products. An increase in order shows a good chance in the manufacturer’s activities to fill in the orders. 

These will also mean a rise in job empowerment, which is good for the economy’s health. 

If the outcome is greater than the forecast, it is suitable for the U.S. dollar, while a result lower than the forecast will mean a bearish move for the U.S. currency. 

The forecast result is 1.1%, while the previous data was 11.4%.

USDMXN Technical Analysis

USDMXN Long-term Direction: Bearish 

Monthly Chart

USDMXN Forecast - Monthly Chart - September 24 2020

Monthly Resistance Levels: 25.77820, 23.2710

Monthly Support Levels: 18.40470, 19.02660, 19.68480 

The U.S. dollar became weak amid the coronavirus pandemic that leads the Mexican peso to make gains against the American dollar in the forex market for months, having seen the general collapse of businesses worldwide and fewer demands on the U.S. dollar.  

A bearish close below the low of June 2020 will give the bears more advantage to take the USDMXN to the low of 19.68480 if the dollars recover remains weak over time.

Weekly Chart

USDMXN Forecast - Weekly Chart - September 24 2020

Weekly Resistance Levels: 24.88850, 23.00, 22.25607

Weekly Support Levels: 20.00, 18.53999

The weekly time frame’s downtrend continues as the bears have collapsed the bullish accumulation support of 13 July 2020 with a close below the 21.49303 level for a possible move to the low of 17 February 2020. 

You can notice that momentums of the bearish candles are small, and the stochastic indicator shows price is at the oversold area, suggesting that we may soon see a bullish trend anytime.

USDMXN Mid-Term Projections: Bearish 

Daily Time Frame

Daily Resistance Levels: 23.22937, 22.93403, 21.46203

Daily Support Levels: 20.84844

The USDMXN pair has had a whipsaw pattern on the trading platform, and for every rise, there comes a fall that breaks down the supports to keep the downtrend on.

A rise of price from the support level (20.84844) of 17 September 2020 may hit the previous support level turned resistance before seeing another bearish swing to the downside and taking out the 20.84844 levels.

4Hour Time Frame

4Hour Resistance Levels: 21.94362, 21.49691, 21.16794

4Hour Support Levels: 20.84456

Hidden bearish divergence is building as the indicator shows signs of price in the overbought zone indicating a possible bearish swing as the hour’s progress as at the report’s writing.

If the USDMXN pair should respect the resistance levels of 21.16794, we shall see the Mexican peso making gains and possible push to 20.84456 and below if the momentum is available.

If the divergence should fail, we are likely to see the bulls surge rise to the high of 21.49691 before seeing another bears dominance of the market.

Bullish Scenario:

The bullish scenario based on the four-hour time frame has a slim chance to have strong dominance, except the bulls can close above the resistance level of 21.16794 for an uptrend.

Bearish Scenario:

In recent times, the bears have dominated the market after mart of the coronavirus pandemic, leading to global lockdowns.

We expect the bearish trend to continue should the daily candle support is broken (20.84844) because of the weak U.S. dollar and the upcoming presidential election.

Conclusion

The Mexican peso has been favorable to the North Americans, has seen improvement in the oil and manufacturing industries after some industries’ openings from the lockdown restrictions.

 

James is based in London ( United Kingdom )
He has been a professional trader for over 5 years.
Currently, he works as forex analyst for different investment companies, and also the main author at USBinaryOptions.com
James S. Martin

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