USDMXN – Weekly Outlook- May 15 2020

USDMXN Outlook & Technical Analysis for US binary options

Introduction

The coronavirus pandemic has had a sharp impact on the state of New York, which lost about 9000 to the coronavirus.

Also, the New York Empire State Manufacturing Index plunged to a record low of -78.2% for April, and its previous record low was -38.2% set in February 2019.

The Mexican government is facing a pandemic crisis like the world and hopes to protect 70% of her citizen as the government is challenged with health and economic emergency, as the USDMXN maintains a bullish outlook.

US investors are still uncertain about the recovery rate of the economy. Most Race Option traders are watching the reaction of the various packages to boost the economy.

Fundamentals 

Mexico GDP

The Mexican peso was at its best over the last few days accumulating an increase of 3.70% over the dollar. Mexico has a high number of affected cases in South America. 

The Mexican government rolled out an economic relief plan amid at the coronavirus by having a 25% cut in salaries (senior public officials), creating 2 million new jobs and delivery of over 3 million credits of about $1200 each directed for the middle class and neediest population.

U.S. 

CORE RETAIL SALES

The U.S. government uses the data from Core Retail Sales to measure the change in the total value of sales at the retail level. The data does not include automobiles, and it is also an important indicator of consumer spending (a pace indicator); this will account for the majority of the overall economic activities. 

The Previous data released was -4.5%, and Forecast is -8.0%, therefore if the actual data is greater than the forecasted, it is good for the economy, but if it is lesser, it is bad for the economy.

Technical Analysis USDMXN

Monthly Chart

USDMXN Outlook - Monthly Chart - May 15 2020

Monthly Resistance Levels: 25.7818, 22.03770, 19.65913

Monthly Support Levels: 17.44984, 18.53350

The USDMXN has been on an uptrend following a push from the support (19.65913) since January 01 2020, closing above resistance zone (22.03770). For the past month, the price has not gone below or above the price region of 25.7818 and 23.67393.

The bullish momentum is imminent, but the market is currently consolidating, and it’s also a result of the ongoing pandemic around the world.

Weekly Chart

USDMXN Outlook - Weekly Chart - May 15 2020

Weekly Resistance Levels: 25.77820, 19.65913, 18.82790, 

Weekly Support Levels: 18.5225, 19.15094

From the weekly chart above, the market has been ranging for weeks. This last week shows a bearish accumulation, and the stochastic signal line is in the overbought zone. 

If all things begin equal, the bears should take the USDMXN down to the previous level of resistance (20.58006).

USDMXN Mid-Term Projections: Bullish Range 

Daily Time Frame

Daily Resistance Levels: 25.7782, 24.7841

Daily Support Levels: 19.9416, 20.2969, 22.836

The USDMXN pair has having hidden bullish divergence from March 12, 1st and 15th April 2020, respectively. The price has been bouncing off the bullish divergence support zone (22.85713) of March 27, 2020, for some days.

A strong bearish candlestick close below the current level will take the price down, but if it fails, we can see a move back to the resistance point. 4Hour Time Frame.

4Hour Resistance Levels: 25.00000, 24.85850, 24.63949, 24.40021, 24.18858 

4Hour Support Levels: 23.55132, 23.77704 

On this H4 chart, we can see that the trend has been bearish for the past 30 hours, and currently, the price is sitting on a support zone of (23.77704) May 08, 2020.

Bullish Scenario:

The bullish trend is the primary direction of USDMXN, and it is weak at the moment. You can see that the price has been in consolidation state for a while now.

Bearish Scenario:

The pressure to push the price of USDMXN for a correction is seen from the bearish accumulation patterns, and if the bull´s momentum runs off, we can get a healthy retracement of price. In the short term, the USDMXN favors a downside.

Conclusion

The effect of this pandemic has affected many businesses, goods, and services of the global economy; jobs are lost and lives also. More stimulus packages to aid the system fight the pandemic by various governments are gradually turning things around.

We hoped to see the various economic sectors in full swing and revived.

 

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