USDMXN – Weekly Outlook- June 26 2020

USDMXN Outlook & Technical Analysis for binary options

Introduction

Investors and brokers on top FX trading platform such as VideForex and terminals focus on the expected data to be released on the new and existing home sales for May and how the governments are reacting to the new cases of the coronavirus pandemic. 

Officials from the Federal Reserve warns that failure to contain the spread may lead to more prolonged shut-downs, which will affect the positive trend on the job gained.

Fundamentals 

Mexico GDP

The recent outbreak of coronavirus among the Mexican farmers working in a Canadian farm has bought the two governments to establish a strong bilateral relationship. 

Both nations work together in stopping the spread of the coronavirus, which has affected the Agricultural sector, which largely depends on foreign workers.

U.S. New Home Sales

This week’s data report on the new home sales is what investors would pay attention to. Some analyst thinks the outcome won’t have much effect because of the coronavirus pandemic effects.

The upcoming new home sales data will measure the health of the economy and determine how the individuals have responded during the pandemic situation. 

As the coronavirus continues to take a toll on the economy and there has been a drop in all regions because of the outbreak.

The number of new single-family homes that were forecasted is 630K, while the previous data is 623K.

A positive data will be bullish for the US currencies, while a negative report will be bearish.

USDMXN Long-term Direction: Bullish and Slowing

USDMXN: Technical Analysis

Monthly Chart

USDMXN Outlook - Monthly Chart - June 26 2020

Monthly Resistance Levels: 23.27100, 25.77820

Monthly Support Levels: 18.4040, 18.64510, 19.02660, 19.68480, 21.45900 

The USDMXN has been in a correction state, having respected the resistance level of 25.78118. The bears have been in control after the inverse hammer candle signifies a reversal of trend on the close of the April candle, showing strength in the Mexican Peso.

The Bulls are pushing back price to the 23.27100 level, which will probably be a resistance zone before we see a rejection to the downside, or we get another upward movement of price.

Weekly Chart

USDMXN Outlook - Weekly Chart - June 26 2020

Weekly Resistance Levels: 24.85463, 25.77820, 19.65913

Weekly Support Levels: 18.53660, 19.65913, 21.45900, 21.85976

As we enter a new week, we have seen a sign of the bullish momentum builds up as the bullish accumulation at the support of 15 and 8 June 2020 (21.45900 and 21.85976) is pushing price up at the writing of this report.

The resistance level of April and May 2020 will be a level that the Bulls need to close above to have total control of price.

USDMXN Mid-Term Projections: Bullish Range 

Daily Time Frame

Daily Resistance Levels: 22.74870, 23.79250, 25.28830, 25.8830, 25.72171 

Daily Support Levels: 18.5225, 19.18600, 20.29690, 21.5046

After days of the bearish trend, bullish accumulations build-up from the support level of 08 June 2020(21.46933), and a bullish divergence from the stochastic was able to rally the USDMXN price up for some days.

If we get a close above the bearish accumulation of 15 June 2020(27.74870) and 19 May 2020 (23.79250), we can see price retesting the resistance level of 6th and 24th April 2020.

4Hour Time Frame

4Hour Resistance Levels: 21.99040, 22.48870, 22.82614, 23.16480, 23.75139, 24.37770, 24.64258, 24.86228, 25.28830 

4Hour Support Levels: 21.45900

The bearish trend has been dominant for a long while with a series of resistance, rejecting every bullish push to the upside. 

A bullish trend is established on this time frame after the support of 08 June 2020(21.45900) was able to push the USDMXN price up. 

We can see the trend establishes higher highs and high lows. A close above the 22.82614 will expose the next resistance of 19 May 2020 (23.75139).

Bullish Scenario:

The bullish scenario is at play currently on the 4-hour time frame. A close of price above the resistance could attract more buyers in the coming days of the week.

Bearish Scenario:

The bearish trend has been in play for a while now in the weekly and daily time frames. However, the bears have lost their steam on the 4-hour time frame, which may be in a correction before we get another surge of the bearish trend.

Conclusion

The advanced and emerging economies face great depression during this recession in the market because of the negative growth rate. 

The rapid spread of Coronavirus in Latin America raises concerns for investors and governments as we come to the end of Q2 2020.

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