USD/JPY Retracement May Turn Bullish if Price Closes Above Key Fibonacci Level

Japan – Tertiary Industry Activity

Tomorrow, at GMT 5:30 a.m., the Japanese Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry will release the month over month tertiary industry activity figure, which measures the changes in the total value of services bought by tertiary businesses in Japan.

Since Japanese businesses increase their purchases of various services in order to expand their business when they feel optimistic, the tertiary industry activity figure is considered by binary options traders as a leading indicator of the overall Japanese economy.

Last month, the Japanese tertiary industry activity went up by 1.4%, and the forecast for this month is currently set at a decline of -0.7%.

United States – Core Consumer Price Index

On Friday, at 1:30 p.m., the US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the month-over-month Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) data.

Since the Core CPI measures the changes in the price of goods and services but excludes the volatile food and energy prices, binary options investors consider this data to be more important compared to the CPI figure.

Last month, based on the US Core CPI, there were around 0.2% inflation in the economy. This month, the forecast is set at 0.2% inflation as well.

Trade Recommendation for the USD/JPY


Since forming a tiny bearish pin bar on May 30, the USD/JPY price has resumed the downtrend. Since then, the USD/JPY has declined by around 1,250 pips and formed a downward sloping trend line in the process.

The USD/JPY downtrend was accelerated at the end of June, when the pair formed a Doji looking bar on June 23, then the price declined by 687 pips on June 24.

However, since June 24, the USD/JPY price has mostly remained in a close range and so far the price has retraced above the 23.6% Fibonacci level. Earlier today, the USD/JPY climbed around 225 pips so far, and currently approaching the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, which is located near the 103.60 level.

As the Japanese tertiary industry activity is expected to decline, it would likely set a bearish fundamental outlook for the AUD/JPY this week. Hence, if the USD/JPY penetrates above last week’s high, near 103.50, and breaks above the downtrend line, it would likely attract additional bullish momentum in the market.

Under the circumstances, it would be recommended that US binary options traders consider placing a CALL order for the USD/JPY with their binary options brokers as soon as the price and closes above the 103.50 level.

Conservative traders may consider placing the order only after the price has broken and closed above the downtrend line as well.

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