EUR/USD Weekly Outlook & Technical – September 1 2020

Last Updated on October 8, 2020

EUR/USD Outlook & Technical Analysis

Introduction

The new week is an interesting one for the brokers, BinaryCent traders, and investors. We know that there is significant news on the economic calendar that will determine the market’s direction in the new month.

Euro Zone Fundamentals

Germany Unemployment Change:

From the Euro zones, we know that the Germans economy is one of the strongest among the European zones. 

The data gotten from Germany Labor of Statistics measures the number of unemployed changes among the individuals who have not engaged from the last month.

If the outcome is greater than the forecast, it is bearish for the euro currency, while a lower result from the report is positive data for the Euro currencies. The forecast is 1K, while the previous was -18K.

U.S. Fundamentals

Non-farm Employment Changes:

This data report is released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which focuses on the total number of successfully employed people in various sectors of the economy, excluding the farming industry. 

If the actual data released is greater than the binary options forecast, it is good for the U.S. economy and currency, but if the outcome is lower than expected, it isn’t suitable for the U.S. currency.

The forecast is 1518K, while the previous is 1763K.

EUR vs. USD Long-term Objective: Bullish 

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

 Monthly Chart

EUR/USD Outlook - Monthly Chart - 1st September 2020

Monthly Resistances: 1.25558, 1.21545, 1.5698, 1.14950

Monthly Supports: 1.06359, 1.10292, 1.03402

The July candle closed with a massive bullish momentum, which shows that the bullish run is not yet over for the EURUSD pair in the coming months.

As the August candles close in a bullish form, we may see the new month candle surge higher towards the resistance zones of 1.21545 that may slow down the upward run. 

From that resistance zone, the U.S. dollar may regain control of the market to push down the pair.

Weekly Chart Bullish

EUR/USD Outlook - Weekly Chart - 1st September 2020

Weekly Resistances: 1.14963, 1.14222, 1.19207

Weekly Supports: 1.08965, 1.11726, 1.12430, 1.16959

You can see that from the news report of the second wave of COVID-19, it has weakened the U.S. dollar, and the failure of the Senators to agree on the stimulus package lead to the rise of other majors against the U.S. dollar.

The bulls rally from the support zones of 1.11726, and 1.12430 started the buildup when the bulls’ accumulation on the support zone grew more potent for a surge above the resistance zones of 1.14693.

Can this trading week surge higher than the current resistance level as at the writing of this report? 

A close above the 1.19207 level will bring in more buyers into the market. However, if the resistance level is respected, we may see a rejection of the bull’s surge, and the bears will push down the price to the 1.16599 level and below.

EURUSD Mid-Term Projections: Bullish Consolidating

Daily Chart

Daily Resistance Level: 1.19657, 1.19163, 1.18180

Daily Support Level: 1.16960, 1.17543, 1.17969, 1.18497

Our daily chart indicates that the EURUSD has been trading between the 1.19657 and 1.16960 for some days. Looking at the chart, we can see an uptrend setup as the highs are getting higher while the lows are also getting higher. 

We need to see the current bulls run from the 1.18497 level to close above the resistance of 1.19657(18th August 2020) to continue a strong bullish run.

If the resistance level should prove decisive for the bulls, we may see the bears taking over the market from that spot of resistance, pushing back the EUR/USD to the low of 1.17969.

H4 Chart

H4 Resistance

Level: 1.20000, 1.19657, 1.19051, 1.18860

H4 Support Levels: 1.16940, 1.17288, 1.17649 

From the Hour 4 time frame, we can see that price is within the resistance zones of 1.20000 and 1.19657 that had rejected the bulls surge previously as of 30th July and 5th August 2020. 

We may see the bears pushing back the EUR/USD back like it did if the bulls’ momentum should fail to close above the resistance level of 1.20000, and they may take the price down to the support zone of 1.17649, confirming short term strength for the US Dollar.

If the Bulls momentum is strong, we may see the run breaking above the resistance to create a new high, which will take the price of EURUSD out of the ranging market.

Bullish Scenario:

From our weekly time frame, we can see that the EUR/USD is an uptrend, and the market is currently resting as we expect another breakout above the resistance level of 1.19207 for the continuation of the trend.

Bearish Scenario:

The U.S. dollar may gain some strength against the other major pairs should the currency find a hold at the H4 time frame’s resistance level for a bearish swing to the low of 1.17649.

Conclusion and Weekly Price Objectives

As the new week unfolds, the trading broker is advised to wait for the price to close above the resistance level (1.19207) on the weekly time frame for an uptrend opportunity or to see if the level will reject the bull’s advancement for a chance to trade in a downward direction.

 

James is based in London ( United Kingdom )
He has been a professional trader for over 5 years.
Currently, he works as forex analyst for different investment companies, and also the main author at USBinaryOptions.com
James S. Martin
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