EURUSD Weekly Outlook & Technical – March 12 2019

EURUSD Outlook & Technical Analysis for US Binary Options

Introduction

The Euro continued a bullish outlook following a bearish price slump in the USD Index, and complete dominance of the Great British pound as revealed on the EURGBP chart on Us binary options brokers trading dashboards.

In this post, we’ll walk you through the crucial resistance levels that gave way to increasing demand for the EURO, possible areas to expect a price slowing, and major fundamental events taking place this week.

Fundamentals

Eurozone Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

GDP of a country is the most basic measure of the health of an economy and the level of activity. It measures the yearly difference in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services that the economy produces.

A bullish sentiment can be expected for the Euro when data reading is higher than expected, whereas a lower than expected data is rated bearish for the currency.

A bearish trend looks imminent for the USD if the most recent data is heeded as it shows the actual reading to be 1.0%, previous reading to be 1.2%, and the forecast data to be 0.9%.

U.S. Federal Budget Balance

The Federal Budget Balance evaluates the difference in value between the income and expenditure of the federal government during the month in view.

A positive number means a budget surplus; a negative number means a budget deficiency.

A bullish sentiment can be expected for the Euro when data reading is higher than expected, whereas a lower than expected data is rated bearish for the currency.

A bearish trend looks imminent for the USD if the most recent data of February 12 is heeded, as it shows the actual reading to be -33.0B, previous reading to be -13.3B, and the forecast data to be -11.5B.

EUR vs. USD Long-term Objective: Bullish Start

EURUSD: Technical Analysis

Monthly Chart

EURUSD Outlook - Monthly Chart - March 12 2020

From the monthly chart overview, the EURUSD closed bearish signaling a pin-bar reversal candlestick pattern, establishing support at 1.07778 on 03 Feb ’20, and forcing the exchange rates of both major currencies out of the oversold area.

The exit of the oversold zone also coincides with a breach of the 1.10945 resistance level set up by the same February pin-bar reversal pattern.

A slowing of the bullish thrust is expected upon hitting the 01 Feb ’19 accumulation of resistance level (1.14886). Bulls may look towards taking some profit off the table at this level or perhaps bring their stop loss to break even, in a bid to mitigate future risks that comes with the corona virus outbreak.

Weekly Chart

EURUSD Outlook - Weekly Chart - March 12 2020

Taking a step down to the weekly time frame, this time, the EURUSD flags a bullish pin-bar candlestick pattern on 17 Feb ‘20, followed by a long bullish closing candle and exiting the oversold region.

The bullish pressure continued, leading to bullish closing bars and breaking beyond the 13 Jan ’20 resistance (1.11726).

Trailing stop and profit locking should be activated as soon as the EURUSD enters the overbought area.

EURUSD Mid-Term Projections: Bullish and Slowing

Daily Chart

EURUSD Outlook - Daily Chart - March 12 2020

After a failure of support on 31 Dec ’19, the bears signaled a hidden bearish divergence setup on 07 Feb ’20, sending control back to the Greenback and causing the EURUSD FX pair to plunge into the oversold area.

A price close above the hidden bearish resistance on 20 Feb ’20 confirmed the bottoming of the bearish trend and set the tone for a bullish campaign.

An increase in demand for the EURO continued for eleven days and a 6.67% increase in the exchange rate from the oversold support.

 4HR Chart

Bearish resistance levels could not withstand bullish momentum as shown on the above 4hour time frame, which offers a granular breakdown of the consecutive bullish closing bars on the daily time frame.

The bullish campaign started on 19 Feb ’20 09:00 after a break above resistance (1.07989). A double bottom chart formation was again signaled on 03 Mar ’20 05:00 after the pair increased by about 4.0% from the 19 Feb low. 

A bull-trap formation and regular bearish divergence are signaled at press time, and we suggest closing a large chunk of our long position at this time.

Conclusion

Now at publication time, we observe a slow resurgence of the USD Index bullish interest, which aligns with our narrative that the bulls should consider locking in some profits.

The bulls could wait for a corrective wave to the downside before adding to their long bias going forward.

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