EURUSD Weekly Outlook & Technical – June 30 2020

Last Updated on October 8, 2020

EURUSD Outlook & Technical Analysis for binary options


Recent data released about the COVID-19 new cases are of concern to the major currencies because it will put the economy and other businesses into another harsh condition.

Online trading platforms, such as Race Option, are interested in this week’s fundamental news report because it will help them in their trading decision and investment planning.

Euro Zone Fundamentals 

The Unemployment Change (Germany). Germany is one of the strongest economies for the major currencies in the Euro, and this data will mean a lot for the trading brokers and other institutional traders. 

It will help investors know the health of the economy and how it has responded amid the COVID-19 pandemic.  

The data will measure the number of unemployed people in the previous month who got employed. A change in the number is good for the major.

Previous data was 238K while Forecast is 80K.

U.S. Fundamentals

The non-farm employment change by ADP will release data on the estimated number of people who got employed during the previous month without including the government sectors and the farm industries.

However, if the actual release is greater than the forecasted, it is good for the currency, but if the actual is lower than the Forecasted, it isn’t good for the currency.

Forecasted = 3000K, Previous = -2760K

EURUSD: Technical Analysis 

EUR vs. USD Long-term Objective: Bearish Correcting 

Monthly Chart

EURUSD Outlook - Monthly Chart - June 3 2020

Monthly Resistance Levels: 1.14225, 1.4950, 1.15698

Monthly Support Levels: 1.03402, 1.08288, 1.06359, 1.10292

For the past three months, the EURUSD has been moving between the resistances of 1.14225, 1.14950, 1.5698, and support levels 1.03402 and 1.06359. 

In the last weeks of June, we have seen how the EURUSD exchange rate was rejected after the bulls’ run.

Weekly Chart

EURUSD Outlook - Weekly Chart - June 3 2020

Weekly Resistance Levels:  1.14225, 1.14963

Weekly Support Levels: 1.06361, 1.07197, 1.07666, 1.08965, 1.08968, 1.09812, 1.10322, 1.11726

We can see that the support has been building up consistently on the weekly time frame from March 2020 till May 2020 before it finally broke above a previous resistance level turned support (1.10322 and 1.09812).

In the early part of June, the EURUSD entered into the corrective stage of the swing high that took price up.

However, the EURUSD is seating on a previous level of resistance (1.11726), which may act as a support should it hold, and we get a push to the upside. If the bears are strong, they may push the price further down.

EURUSD Mid-Term Projections: Bullish Correcting

Daily Chart

EURUSD Outlook - Daily Chart - June 3 2020

Daily Resistance Levels: 1.13486, 1.14225, 1.12332

Daily Support Levels: 1.07749, 1.08706, 1.09145, 1.11682

The regular bullish divergence of 14th May 2020 showed that buyers are coming into the market. The 25th May 2020 support was established, and a bullish surge took the price to the resistance level of 1.14225.

After days of a strong uptrend, we can see that it came to an end when a regular bearish divergence on 10th June 2020 was confirmed with the stochastic indicator that took the price down for a short downtrend.

Price found temporal support to the upside on 19th June 2020 before the inside bar resistance chart pattern was formed. As at the writing of this report, we wait for the new week to clarify the direction of price either to the downside or upside.

H4 Chart

H4 Resistance Levels: 1.13205, 1.14225

H4 Support Levels: 1.11660, 1.1190 

The Resistance Levels of 1.13205 and 1.14225 has been a secure zone that price has respected since 10th June 2020.

The1.11900 and 1.11660 support zones pushed price up after the regular Bullish Divergence confirmed it. 

The support zone is put to test as the price is currently at 1.12176, at the writing of this report. We await the new week to know how EURUSD will react around the zone.

Bullish Scenario:

Based on the weekly time frame, we have a bullish trend, and we may see a continuation of the trend if the correction does not end up becoming a reversal of the trend.

Bearish Scenario:

Based on the daily and 4 hour time frames, we have seen the bears have more dominance in this time frame. 

As the bears keep holding the resistance level on the daily chart, the bull needs to close above to continue its move, but as it is now, that zone is psychological heaven for the bears.

Conclusion and Weekly Price Objectives

The Price of EURUSD has been ranging between the 1.13205 and 1.11900 on H4. The current H4 time frame favours more of the downward trend in the nearest future.

As you can see, if the number of COVID-19 new cases in the US keeps rising, it will make trading brokers and other investors risk-averse due to uncertainty in the economy.

James S. Martin
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