EURUSD Weekly Outlook & Technical – April 9 2020

EURUSD Outlook & Technical Analysis for US Binary Options

Introduction

With over 10 million American jobs lost in just 2 weeks, the United States Unemployment Rate shoots beyond 10%.

Employment data coming out of the US is terrible, as the unemployment claims revealed America losing over 10 million jobs in just two weeks. The NFP- Non-Farm Payroll numbers were also not good, with recorded losses to about 701K jobs.

The United States is not the only nation suffering from the coronavirus pandemic, as its effect hits businesses and industries across global economies.

Last week’s plunge in the value of the Service PMI into the 20 region shows that the Eurozone is set to dive into a deep recession, compared to the 2009 or 2012 EU crises.

Analysts expect a further plummet of global economies in the second quarter Q2 of this year. 

Read on for more insights into the technical and macroeconomic events affecting the EURUSD on RaceOption platform.

Fundamentals

Trade Balance Germany

It measures the difference in value between goods exported and imported goods across the month in view. A positive value points to higher export when compared to imports.

The Trade Balance index is the measurement of the difference in value between imported and exported over the period of the month in review.

A positive data reading shows fewer goods were imported than was exported.

A bullish reading for the EUR is determined when the reading that is stronger than forecast, whereas a weaker than forecast reading is generally considered bearish negative for the Euro.

Data released on March 09 shows that bullish sentiment is imminent for the EUR as the readings read thus; forecast: 15.4B, Previous: 19.0B, and Actual: 18.5B.

U.S. JOLTs Job Openings

The JOLTs openings survey is undertaken by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and helps to measure job vacancies. The Bureau polls data from employers about their businesses’ employment, recruitment, job openings, hires, and separations.

Job openings are defined as all positions that are open or not occupied by the last business day of the month.

Three conditions determine if a job is open or not.

1. If a specific role exists and there is work available for that position.

2. If the said job could begin in the space of 30 days, whether the establishment finds a fitting candidate during that time or not.

3. If there’s active recruitment of workers outside the established location that has opening.

A bullish reading for the USD is determined when the reading that is stronger than forecast, whereas a weaker than forecast reading is generally considered bearish negative for the currency.

Data released on March 17 shows that bullish sentiment is imminent for the USD as the readings read thus; forecast: 6.476M, Previous: 6.552M, and Actual: 6.963M.

EURUSD Technical Analysis

EUR vs. USD Long-term Objective: Bearish 

Monthly Chart

EURUSD Outlook - Monthly Chart - April 9 2020

Major currencies of global economies have suffered a negative impact as a result of the coronavirus pandemic. The EURUSD from a monthly chart overview is not left out as the prolonged southbound trend persists, signaling an accumulation of sell orders at the close of Q1.

Bearish momentum now heads towards the Jan 2017 support at 1.03402 and back into the oversold area.

Weekly Chart

EURUSD Outlook - Weekly Chart - April 9 2020

The bulls could not advance beyond the 1.14950 resistance set on 09 March 2020, as the bears forced the EURUSD price below the MA-200 and MA-50 levels.

An opposite bullish divergence is expected, should a golden cross of the stochastic oscillator gets triggered while coming out of the oversold area.

EURUSD Mid-Term Projections: Bearish Bottoming

Daily Chart

A combination of bullish candlestick accumulation pattern and bullish divergence flagged on 20 March 2020 resulted in an upward surge in the price of the EURUSD. However, the accumulation of bearish candlesticks flagged on 01 April 2020 brought the exchange rate lower.

The price close above the 1.08356 resistance shows that the bulls are making attempts to restore the exchange rate of the EURUSD to the upside as we enter a new week.

4HR Chart

The bearish momentum started to slow down from the 4hour chart view, and later exited the oversold area, advancing into the overbought area in the new week.

After exiting the overbought area at press time, the EURUSD finds resistance below the MA-50 and the 1.09287 resistance set on 01 April 2020 20:00. A price close beyond this threshold may confirm a continuation of the upbeat trend into the week. 

Conclusion

A hidden bullish divergence on the USD Index shows a highly probable increase in demand for the USD paired against major currencies. In that case, a long term bearish trend of the EURUSD may persist going forward.

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