Last Updated on October 8, 2020
EURUSD Outlook & Technical Analysis – Covid-19
The effect of Covid-19 on the major currencies caused uncertainty in the financial market in the first quarter of 2020. The news caught the world unprepared causing market to rumble, resulting in high volatility and spikes in the market. With the high numbers of cases on coronavirus outbreaks in a different part of the world, making business to shut down, no international movements, lockdown etc. there is pressure on the treasury purse of different countries. Trading brokers such as BinaryCent, Banks and other institutions are trading with caution monitoring how the major currencies are responding to coronavirus pandemic on the global economy.
Eurozone Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)
This macro-economic indicator in the euro-zone evaluates the level activity of purchasing superintendents in the services division. The index is based on a report from a survey of about 600 business executives in private sector services companies.
The index is derived from the replies from these companies and then assigns the needed levels for readings. A level above 50.0 signals an improvement. On the other hand, levels lower than 50.0 points to a recession. The indicator can be a leading indicator of overall economic performance.
A higher than expected reading is positive for the EUR, while a lower than expected translation shows bearish sentiment towards the EUR.
Most recent data suggests that a bullish sentiment is in view for the Euro as the data reads; Previous: 52.6, Actual: 26.4, and Forecast: 28.4.
U.S. Crude Oil Inventories
The Energy Information Administration gather crude oil Inventories, an evaluation of the changes in the commercial quantities of crude oil kept held by U.S. firms. It is a weekly report, and the inventory level affects the price of petroleum products. This also can have an impact on inflation.
A more than expected increase in crude inventories indicates lower demand for crude and signals that bearish sentiment is on the cards for oil prices. The same condition goes for a situation where the slump in storage is lighter than expected.
Conversely, a less than supposed gain in crude signifies a more leading demand for oil, and this is bullish for crude prices. An opposite direction should follow if a decline in storage is more than expected.
Most recent data suggests that bullish sentiment is in view for the Dollar as the data reads;
Actual: 19.248M, Forecast: 11.676M, and Previous: 15.177M
EUR vs. USD Long-term Objective: Bearish
EURUSD Technical Analysis
After the bullish run of price 1.05694 from the Low of April 03, 2017, EURUSD met the resistance of price at 1.25558 as at February 01, 2018. The Moving Average also acted as resistance to Price and creating higher lowers. There was a Bearish Accumulation pattern on the resistance level of price at 1.18523 on June 01, 2018, and also breakdown resistance on January 01, 2019, at 1.15698 which also pushed the price down. The long-term objective of the market is bearish since 2018. The first quarter of 2020 started with the coronavirus news creating uncertainty in the market.
No major support has been established since the bear rallies have been in control since 2018 because every low established has been taken out. However, on March 02, 2020, the market established bearish accumulation support at 1.06359 closer to the Bullish accumulation support of April 03, 2017, that pushed EURUSD up from price 1.05694 to 1.25558 (2018).
The Moving Average acted as strong resistances bringing the price down since March 09, 2020, after priced made the high of 1.14950 on the weekly chart. EURUSD price retested the 1.12055 zone and there was a strong rejection giving us a Double Bearish Accumulation Resistance January 06, 2020. The current weekly resistance is at 1.09909 (April 13, ‘20.
The support zone was established with a strong rejection of price at 1.06359 on March 23, 2020, from pushing down further. The higher lows are seen on a weekly basis making the candles form a triangle.
EURUSD Mid-Term Projections: Bearish
On March 09, 2020, EURUSD major currencies established resistance at 1.14950. The bearish engulfing candlestick pattern also confirms the bearish bias with the stochastic oscillator at overbought zone. After the initial drop, there was a pullback and a higher low was formed (resistance) respecting the Moving average. Price formed a double bearish accumulation March 31, 2020, taking price lower from 1.10534. A bearish engulfing bar formed on April 15, 2020, pushing the price down currently from 1.09798.
The Bulls rallied the price up after price established a double bullish accumulation pattern on March 23, 2020, at 1.06359. The stochastic oscillator was also at the oversold zone after the price retraced from the high of 1.14950. EURUSD had breakout support at 1.07726 (April 03, ’20) soaring before facing added resistance on April 15, 2020.
Conclusion and Weekly Price Objectives
The Covid-19 pandemic has created panic during the first quarter of the year in the financial market. Trading brokers are watching the EURUSD with kin interest because the resistance levels are getting lower while the support levels are getting higher, therefore, giving us a triangle. A breakout to either side will determine a bias for market players.