EURUSD Weekly Outlook – October 15 2021

Last Updated on October 15, 2021

EURUSD Outlook


The FOMC officials are likely going to start the tapering bond purchases from November and the central banks will increase the interest rate as the US economy continues to recover from the crisis. US binary options brokers and instructional traders are braising up for the change coming soon.

 EURO News

Trade Balance

An outcome of the difference in value between imported goods and services during the reported month serves as a trade balance. The German and French zones account for more than half of the Eurozone’s economy. 

If the trade balance should show that the Euro zones businesses did more goods and services in export than imported, it is good for the zone. Usually, the report is released after 45 days when the month ends.

The forecast is 14.1B while the previous is 13.4B.

US CPI m/m  

The CPI data is an important factor for the Federal reserve committee because of consumers’ price relationship to inflation. If the price of consumable items is on the rise, the central bank uses the interest rate as a control measure for inflation containment. 

CPI measures changes in the price of goods and services that consumers purchased within a certain period within the month.

The previous data was 0.3% while the forecast was 0.3%. A lower outcome is not suitable for the US dollar, while a greater result is suitable for the currency.

EURUSD Technical Analysis

Monthly Chart Analysis: Breakdown of Bullish Expanding Channel

EURUSD monthly chart - 15th October 2021

Monthly Resistance: 1.200

Monthly Support:  1.039

The short position traders on the EURUSD pair could close the month on a bearish note around the support level of 1.15900. EURUSD pair enjoyed about 2.80% from the high of 1.19300. The candlestick of September has a bearish momentum at the close of the month. The bears will probably continue the downtrend as October opens up its economic activities.

Since the price is around a psychological support area, the forex brokers will watch the behaviors of market participants around the zone. Whenever the price closes below the 1.5000 mark, the bearish run will continue, but if it can’t close below the zone, the bias will probably shift to a bullish run.

Weekly Chart Bearish

EURUSD weekly chart - 15th October 2021

Weekly Resistance Level: 1.16875

Weekly Support Level:  1.450 and 1.14000

The weekly chart of EURUSD continued its downward trend after the price broke out below the support of zones of 1.16785. short position traders could close the week and the month is a bearish state favoring the US dollar over the Euros. 

As the new trading week resumes, we expect the bears to continue their previous week’s direction as they aim to take out the 1.14000 levels. 

Economic activities from the forex calendar will influence the direction of the pair when they are released during the trading week. The outcome may change the direction of price in favor of the Bulls or the Bears.

Daily Chart Projections: Bullish. 

Daily Resistance Level: 1.19500, 1.19091, 1.16641

Daily Support Level: 1.1500

Bears who held their short positions opened were able to close below the support zones of 1.17000 after holding on to the bearish swing, which was triggered after the bears took out the 1.17700 zones some days back. The EURUSD pair is currently bearish and a close below the 1.15295 level will push the price lower.

A close above the daily trend line will shift the momentum in favor of the Bulls. We shall watch the psychological behavior of the market participants as the market reacts to the poor US data results.

Bullish Scenario:

We expect the uptrend to hold on the daily time frame if the bulls continue to trade above the 1.15295 and 1.15000 support levels.

Bearish Scenario:

Traders who are in a short position need to take the price lower than 1.15295 for the bearish run to continue on the daily time frame. A close below the support level will strengthen the US dollar on the trading chart.

Conclusion and Weekly Price Objectives

The US dollar was low against other pairs when the unemployment data was less than expected for September amid a lower outcome in the government payrolls.

Traders and Forex brokers are watching and listening to the tone of the Federal Open Market Committee members as the Federal Reserve eyes November as the period of reducing its monthly bond purchase and likely to increase interest rate afterward as the news gains momentum. 

James S. Martin
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