EURUSD – Weekly Outlook- November 15 2019

EURUSD Outlook & Technical Analysis for US Binary Options

Introduction

The EURUSD is about the most traded currency pair among day traders and binary options traders, mainly because it’s made up of the two biggest and prominent economies. The pair has been in a bearish trend for about twenty months since the 1.25560 high on February 01 ’18.

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This week, we’ll be analyzing the major fundamental and technical drivers of the EURUSD exchange rate.

Fundamentals

Eurozone Industrial Production

Industrial Production evaluates the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of product generated by utilities, mines, and manufacturers.

If figures are higher than anticipated, we consider it a negative trend for the EUR, whereas we consider any reading lower or less than expected as a positive sentiment for the EUR.

Data released on October 14 shows that the previous data read -0.4% while the actual data read 0.4%. The forecast figures read 0.4% hinting at a positive bearing for the Euro.

U.S. Federal Budget Balance

The Federal Budget Balance is a measure of the difference in value between the income and expenditure of the federal government during the reported month.

A negative number signifies a budget deficit while a positive figure indicates a surplus.

Data released in October reveals that the previous data to be -200B while the actual data read 83.0B. The forecast figures read 83.5B hinting at a positive bearing for the USD.

U.S. Core Consumer Price Index (CPI)

It is a measure of the variations in the price of services and goods, barring price variations of energy and food. The index evaluates changes in price from the consumer’s perspective. It is a major way to determine spending and inflation.

If figures are higher than anticipated, we consider it a negative trend for the USD, whereas we consider any reading lower or less than expected as a positive sentiment for the USD.

Data made available for October 10 shows that the previous data to read 0.3% while the actual data read 0.1%. The forecast figures read 0.2% pointing to a positive expectation for the USD.

EURUSD Technical

EURUSD Long term Projection: Bearish and consolidating

Weekly Chart

EURUSD Outlook - Weekly Chart - Nov 15 2019

The Euro vs. USD, major currencies most traded in pairs established hidden bullish support at 1.10736 upon entering the resistance zone of the MA-50. The support could not stand the test of time as it collapsed to an increase in selling pressure on November 04. 

Bearish momentum may drive the forex exchange rate towards the September 09 bullish support.

EURUSD Medium Term Projections: Bullish

Daily Chart

EURUSD Outlook - Daily Chart - Nov 15 2019

After an increase in buying power on October 04, the EURUSD price skyrocketed by roughly 1.82% before signaling a double top chart pattern in combination with a collapse of bullish support on November 04.

Since the price collapse, the Greenback has increased in strength by about 1.17% as the EURUSD continued to form consecutive bearish closing candlesticks.

The resistance level at 1.10204 is a key level to watch, as a close above it could mean a change in polarity to the upside, otherwise, the bearish trend could continue.

4HR Chart

EURUSD Outlook -4H Chart - Nov 15 2019

Zooming closer to the 4hour time frame, we observe how the bears break below bullish support levels on November 04, 10:00, 05 06:00, 11 22:00, and November 13, 14:00.

The EURUSD trades below the 50-period Moving Average, strongly emphasizing the bearish outlook.

Conclusion

As the demand for the USD is on the rise, there are no significant reversal patterns to encourage the purchase of the Euro. We, therefore, maintain a strong bias towards the EURUSD into the remaining days in the week.

 

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