EURUSD Weekly Outlook – June 17 2021

Last Updated on June 17, 2021

EURUSD Outlook – June 17 2021

Introduction

The EURUSD trading week will be another exciting week for forex brokers such as VideForex, as we expect some strong fundamental news from the economic calendar that will cause high volatility in the market. 

In commodity, we can see the U.S crude rise to 0.38% ($71.15) a barrel as talks continues about United States rejoining a nuclear agreement with Tehran.

EURO and US News

If German CPI and labor market seems not to stir up a speculative spirit, then forex brokers and other market participants may shifts the spotlight to the US retail sales and PPI figures that will be released during the week.

German Unemployment rate

The Jobless rate is measured by the Office for National Statistics which carries out the task of accessing the percentage of a total workforce that is actively seeking for employment who are unemployed during the past 3 months. 

It is a lagging indicator and useful for policy makers because the number of unemployed persons is an important signal of the overall economic health and it’s highly correlated with labor-market conditions. 

If the outcome is greater than the forecast, it is not suitable for the currency, while a lower outcome than the forecast is good for the currency. The previous data was 4.8% while the forecast is 4.7%

Would the recent US economic data outcomes help the FED decide on the stimulus withdrawal ahead of the Wednesday’s FOMC meeting? The U. S dollar index was at 90.414 and has shown a sign of strength against other major currencies in the trading market which shows that we might see a strong dollar this week.

US Producers Price Index

The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases producers Price Index after 13 days into the new month. It’s a leading indicator that highlights the levels of consumers’ inflation when the cost of goods and services are higher and it passed them to the consumer. 

This report measures the change in the price of services and goods sold by producers to consumers. The finished goods previous report came out at 0.6% while the forecast is 0.5%. If the actual is higher than the forecast, it is good for the U.S dollar but a lower outcome will be suitable for the currency.

Traders and investors are hoping for better outcome from the US economic calendar during the week which could spark some modest US dollar volatility.

EURUSD Technical Analysis

Monthly Chart Overview: Uptrend within resistance Zone

EURUSD Monthly Chart - 17th June 2021

The Monthly Resistance 1.25557, 1.21543

The Monthly Support 1.10391, 1.06359, 1.1600

The US dollar is showing a sign of strength as the month progresses. Technically, the resistance zones of 1.25557 and 1.21543 are expected to reject the retest of the bulls on the Monthly chart for a possible short option. 

If the EURUSD pair should close below the 1.1600 support level, we can officially say that the pair is bearish on the monthly chart, and it will expose the 1.10391 levels. 

However, the uptrend move is still valid despite the weak bullish momentum of the pair since it got to the resistance zones.

Weekly Chart Bullish

EURUSD Weekly Chart - 17th June 2021

Weekly Resistance Level: 1.22569, 1.23495, 1.2150

Weekly Support Level: 1.1900, 1.16875

The previous week closed in a breakdown of Bullish inside bar having seen the bears ended the trading week in their favor. As we progress into the new week, we expect the U.S dollar to continue to show strength for a bearish movement. 

The resistance levels of 1.23495 had been a psychological zone for the forex brokers, a close above the zone will attract more buyers into the market. If the short position traders can take the price down and breakout below the 1.16875 levels, we shall see the U.S dollar gain more strength.

Daily Chart Projections: Bullish, 

EURUSD Daily Chart - 17th June 2021

Daily Resistance Level: 1.2150, 1.22430,

Daily Support Level: 1.20927, 1.19756

As at the writing of this report you can see that the sellers could breakout of the ranging zone the market created for days within the 1.22430 and 1.21500 to create a lower high, and lower lows. 

If U.S dollar strength continues to increase, we may see the EURUSD pair drops further to the low of 1.20927.

Bullish Scenario:

The News from the European zone is what will determine the next move of the pair if it favors the Euro from the current zone of the market. 

There might be a bullish surge from the Bulls as the Stochastic shows that price is in an oversold zone so we expect the Bulls to take price high.

Bearish Scenario:

The U.S dollar is likely to get stronger during the week as we expect the bearish engulfing candles to push the pair lower to the low of 1.20927 as FOMC makes their decisions.

Conclusion and Weekly Price Objectives

The US dollar closed previous trading week stronger than the other majors and there is a possibility of the US dollar to continue the new week in the same direction against the major currencies. 

The Fed will have a two-day meeting with a final statement to be published on Wednesday. 

Forex brokers, investors and other traders around the world wish to have an idea when the Fed plans to taper its bond buying program as the U.S economy bounces back from the COVID19 pandemic fallout.

 

James S. Martin
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