EURUSD Weekly Outlook – July 15 2021

Last Updated on July 15, 2021

EURUSD Outlook – July 15, 2021


Forex brokers are waiting for the speech of Jerome Powell that is coming up during the trading week. 

Pocket Option Investors and Institutional traders are seeking clues when the central bank will probably start its stimulus tapering program and if the bank is of the same opinion that the inflation is transitory.

EURO and US News

The sentiment in the market looks at the Fed Chairperson Jerome Powell’s tone as a caution because of the recent rise of COVID19 known as Delta variant in a different parts of the world as they plan to proceed with QE tapering.

Producer Price Index

The core Finished Goods PPI is sourced by the Bureau of Labor Statistics after conducting a series of calculations, the feedback shows that food and energy prices contribution is about 40% of the PPI overall data. 

The data is a leading indicator for consumer inflation because a higher cost in producing goods and services will be passed to the consumers. If the outcome is higher than the projected result it is good for the US dollar but if it is lower, it is not suitable for the currency.

EURUSD Technical Analysis 

EUR vs. USD Monthly Chart Overview: Bearish Swing from resistance Zone

EURUSD monthly chart - July 15 2021

Monthly Resistance Levels 1.19002, 1.22651, 1.23493, 1.18469

Monthly Support Levels 1.15998, 1.17174

The U.S dollar finished the previous month with a strong momentum having seen the currency make significant progress in the previous month by breaking through the previous support zone of 1.18469 to test the support levels of 1.17174. 

A bounce from the zone is expected because of the previous rejection of price around the zones. It is a psychological area for the traders.

Weekly Chart Bullish

EURUSD weekly chart - July 15 2021

Weekly Resistance Level: 1.23576, 1.22679, 1.19670

Weekly Support Level: 1.16975, 1.17373, 1.18000

Having seen mixed results from the US economic calendar at the start of the Month, the currency has not built on the previous momentum it had before the close of June’s candlesticks. The EURUSD pair has been consolidating between the high of 1.19670 and the low of 1.18000.

We are likely to see a correction phase of the bearish move if the US strength becomes weaker and that will like take the price up towards the resistance zones of 1.22679. If the consolidation should continue and the pair fails to close above the high of 1.19670, we may see the US dollar grow in strength and closes below the 1.18000 for the continuation of the downtrend.

Daily Chart Projections: Bullish, 

EURUSD daily chart - July 15 2021

Daily Resistance Level: 1.22651, 1.22577, 1.20048, 1.19724, 1.189450

Daily Support Level:  1.17700

Looking at the daily chart we can see that the EURUSD pair is still bearish because the market structure is created. The recent pullback is not an uptrend until the resistance level of 1.19724 is taking out by price closing above the zone. 

However, if the market structure is broken, we are no longer in a downtrend but an uptrend. If price Bears can push back the price and close below the support zone of 1.117780, we shall see another bearish rally during the week.

However, attention from forex brokers is on the central banks as they proceed with their plans on exiting the COVID-19 pandemic stimulus program amidst the recent upsurge of the virus in some parts of the world. We expect the market to be volatile as they reach the final decision.

Bullish Scenario:

The Buying momentum cannot be ascertained because the selling pressure is still valid. However, if the support zone of 1.17700 is strong, we may see the buyers take the price up from the zone. A close above the resistance 1.19816 will lead to an uptrend on the daily chart.

Bearish Scenario:

The EURUSD pair had been on a downtrend on the daily chart as the price kept closing below previous levels of support. A close below the 1.18450 level is pushing the price lower for a continuation of the downtrend.

Conclusion and Weekly Price Objectives

The U.S dollar has been growing in strength after the Federal Reserve shifted its tone last month despite the COVID19 cases around the world. Economist analyst from Reuters expects the CPI for June to rise by 0.5% against that of May 4.9% from a year ago. 

Forex brokers are hoping for a favorable response from the banks so that they can safely guide their investment.

James S. Martin
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