EURUSD Weekly Outlook – April 30, 2021

Last Updated on April 30, 2021

EURUSD Outlook – April 30 2021

Introduction

This last week of the month is an interesting period for the PocketOption broker, as the FOMC news will give the US dollar the next direction as traders and investors await the outcome of the meetings.

EURO and US News

The German Business Climate

The survey is carried out among the builders, manufacturers, wholesalers, retailers and services and it done on a large sample size of over 8500 businesses base on their assessment of the current business condition and future expectations for the six months. 

It helps businesses to know the health of the economy in terms of investments, hiring and spending.

An actual result greater than the expected data is good for the Euro, while a lower outcome is not suitable for the currency.

THE USD Pending Home Sales

The previous data on the pending home sales was -10% while the forecast is 4.6%, while data focuses on the numbers of homes still under contracts that are yet to be sealed apart from the new ones been constructed. 

The sales of homes have ripple effects, and it’s a leading indicator of the health of the economy as parties involved benefit from the sales because of the flow of funds.

They release the results 28days into a new month and if the actual is higher than the forecast; it is good for the US dollar, but a lower outcome will affect the dollar to go bearish against other quoted pairs.

EURUSD Technical Analysis

Monthly Chart Overview: Bullish Divergence Swing

EURUSD Monthly Chart - April 29 2021

Monthly Resistance Levels: 1.21540, 1.25559

Monthly Support Levels: 1.1500

The US dollar seems to have lost its momentum that it started the first quarter with as the bulls are pushing back the EURUSD pair toward the resistance zone of 1.21540. A successful breakout above the high of 1.25559 will generate a new high, and the bullish swing will continue as the uptrend continues to build momentum.

However, if the resistance of the pair continues to be stiff, we shall see the Bears push back the bullish test of the zone. A clear rejection of the price around the zone shows the bears are dominating the region and the US dollar will get stronger within the months.

Weekly Chart Bullish

Weekly Resistance Level: 1.23497

Weekly Support Level: 1.19521, 1.0361 

The bullish swing that started as of March 23, 2020 during the COVID19 crisis which took the pair up to the resistance levels of January 04, 2021 (1.23497) before the US dollar gained strength because of the stimulus’s package Joe Biden approved.

The Euro has been gaining strength of recent amid the third wave of the COVID-19 infection within the zones. This is a sign that the economy is recovering despite the challenges it is facing. We expect the bullish trend to test the high of 1.23497 in this coming week before we see the bears react from the zone.

Daily Chart Projections: Bullish 

Daily Resistance Level: 1.21801, 1.21695, 1.21896, 1.23495

Daily Support Level: 1.20230, 1.19521, 1.17041

We can see that the bulls had days of successive highs having found support at the 1.17041 zone, close of March 2021. The indicator is in an overbought zone which shows that the buying pressure will be reduced as you can see the price approaching the resistance zones. From this moment, some long position traders, forex brokers have taken profits.

The EURUSD pair on the daily timeframe is showing a sign of weakness, as most traders and investors are waiting for the FOMC meeting outcome to be reading by Jerome Powell, the chair of the committee.

Bullish Scenario:

A close above the daily resistance zones will attract more position traders for a bullish swing towards the resistance zone of January 6, 2021 (1.23495).

Bearish Scenario:

The EURUSD pair is around a resistance zone on the daily chart, having seen the pair enjoyed some bullish run for days. The resistance level will probably attract short position traders that will push the pair down to the support level of 1.19521.

Conclusion and Weekly Price Objectives

The week is likely to start in a bullish direction as the bullish momentum of the buyers is not over and there is a tendency for a price 1.21896 resistance level. However, If the US dollar can be strengthened base on the outcome of the FED, we may see the EURUSD close below the support zone of 1.19521 and it will take us to another lower low in the coming days.

Some analysts view Jerome Powell statement in terms of the rising covid19 vaccination rates and an improving economy could likely make him reiterate his commitment to keep easy policy in place for certain period of time.

James S. Martin
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