EURUSD Weekly Outlook – April 1 , 2021

Last Updated on April 1, 2021

EURUSD Outlook

Introduction

It will interest the VideForex broker to see how the International shares are struggling as the U.S. bond yields higher in March 2021. We observe how the economy recovers gradually from the pandemic it faced last year.

Read on as we dive into more fundamental and technical chart structures driving the EURUSD exchange rate.

EURO and U.S. News

The French government is contemplating another lockdown due to the rise of the coronavirus infection recorded recent. Germany had already restricted movement within its country during the Easter break to reduce the spread of the covid19 virus.

German Retail Sales m/m

The data accounts for consumer spending, which indicates the economy’s health; that is why traders care about the data. The data excludes the automobiles and gas stations to know the value of inflation-adjusted sales and services at the retail level. If the actual result is greater than the forecast, it is suitable for the Euro, but a lower outcome will affect the currency.

The forecast is 2.0%, while the previous data was -4.5% 

Focus on Biden’s multitrillion-dollar plan

The recent news from the U.S. president on a new multitrillion-dollar plan for the country will impact positively impact the economy and currency exchange at large. Forex brokers, traders, and investors would want to know how the president intends to achieve his plans in the coming days.

Non-Farm Payroll 

The non-farm payroll report indicates the numbers of individuals employed in various organizations apart from the previous month’s farming industries. 

This report shows the economy’s overall state and its activities because it is a leading indicator of consumer spending. 

An outcome that is higher than expected is suitable for the U.S. dollar, while a lower result will affect the currency in a bearish way.

The forecast is 652K while the previous is 379K.

EUR vs. USD Long-term Overview:

Bullish Swing, resistance Zone, and correcting

EURUSD Technical Analysis

Monthly Chart

EURUSD monthly Chart - 29 March 2021

Monthly Resistance Levels: 1.25558, 1.21544

Monthly Support Levels: 11.17042

The U.S. dollar is closing Q1 stronger as the economy is recovering from the effect and high impact of the covid19 pandemic that brought the world’s economy to a halt in 2020. After months of struggles, the U.S. dollar was able to make significant progress in March.

The Euro is weak as a result of the covid19 and lockdown restrictions going on within the zones. There is a chance of the pair dropping to 1.14950 in the nearest future.

Weekly Chart Bullish

EURUSD weekly Chart - 29 March 2021

Weekly Resistance Level: 1.22431, 1.23496

Weekly Support Level: 11.17042

President Joe Biden’s recent plan on infrastructure and rebuilding of America will worth a multitrillion-dollar investment will likely influence the currency market and other stocks as well. However, the EURUSD trend had been bullish for a while before hitting resistance at the 1.23496 zones. 

The stochastic indicator shows that the selling pressure has been exhausted in the oversold zone, and we may begin to see the buyers coming into the market. A close above the high will mean the bulls are still in control of the market, and the uptrend continues.

The US dollar strength will likely retrace if it cannot break and close below the support zone of September 21, 2020 (1.16124), but if the sellers can close below the area, it will expose the next support level of May 11, 2020 (1.08965) in the future.

Daily Chart Projections: Bearish 

EURUSD daily Chart - March 29 2021

Daily Resistance Level:  1.19524, 1.21896

Daily Support Level: 1.17616

Viewing from the daily chart, we observe that the trend has been bearish for some days, and the price is on a support level of 1.17828. We expect the price to retest the previous support level that is now resistant at 1.19524 before the bearish trend continues.

If the bull’s momentum should fail, the bears will push down the price lower and lower until it finds new support in the future.

Bullish Scenario:

The monthly trend remains bullish until the low of 1.4950 is taking out by the Bears for a complete change of direction on the pair.

An impending hidden bullish hints at a slowing of the current USD strength and the possibility of an upward hike in exchange rates.

Bearish Scenario:

The EURUSD pair is still in its corrective stage on the weekly time frame, and a close above the resistance zone of 1.23496 will signify a continuation of the uptrend, while a close below the low of 1.161124 will be a complete downtrend for the EURUSD pair.

Conclusion and Weekly Price Objectives

The recent news from the U.S. president about the colossal infrastructure plan will help the U.S. dollar in the recovery process from the covid-19 pandemic. From the dollar index, we have seen that the DXY (Dollar index) has risen above the high of 92 marks showing strength in the U.S. dollar.

As we wait for the Non-farm payroll data, it will drive the pair into its next phase for the new month.

James S. Martin
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