EUR/USD Uptrend Appears Strong Enough to Ignore Modest Improvement in US Retail Sales

Eurozone – German Trade Balance

Today, at GMT 6:00 a.m., the Destatis will release the monthly trade balance figure, which measures the difference in value between net import and export of goods over the past month.

The demand for export in Germany is directly correlated with the demand for the Euro, because the German economy makes up a large portion of the overall Eurozone economy. Hence, binary options investors analyze the monthly trade balance in order to gauge the strength of the EURO against other major currencies.

Last month, the German trade balance figure came out at 19.8 billion and the forecast for this month is currently set at 20.3 billion.

United States – Retail Sales

On Friday, at GMT 12:30 p.m., the US Census Bureau will release the national month-over-month retail sales figure, which measures the changes in the total value of all sales made at the retail level in the country over the past month.

Retail sales data are considered by binary options traders to be the primary gauge of consumer spending and confidence. This is because when consumers are confident about their future financial situation, they tend to spend more.

Last month, the US retail sales value decreased by -0.3% and the forecast for this month is that it would likely increase by 0.2%.

EUR/USD Forecast

Since forming a bullish pin bar on January 3, the EUR/USD has climbed over around 1,100 pips over the last six months and the pair formed two distinct uptrend lines in the process. At the end of June 2017, the EUR/USD tested the intermediate uptrend line but failed to penetrate below it. Consequently, the pair turned bullish and climbed up 325 pips over the last two weeks only to find resistance near the 1.1440 level.

Although the US retail sales figure is expected to go up by almost 0.2% over the last month, we believe the current bullish trend is very strong and it would likely to prevail as the improvements are not that significant. Hence, if the EUR/USD breaks above the 1.1440 level, it would likely attract additional bullish momentum in the market this week.

Therefore, US binary options traders should look out for trading opportunities above this major resistance level around 1.1440.

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