EUR/USD Appears Bearish amid Lower Than Expected German Ifo Business Climate Index

Eurozone – German Ifo Business Climate Index

Today, at GMT 9:00 a.m., the Ifo Institute for Economic Research published this month’s German Business Climate index. The Ifo Business Climate figure measures the level of a composite index, which is created by surveying around 7,000 businesses in Germany by asking them to rate the comparative business conditions of now and in six months.

Since the survey has a large sample size compared to similar studies, US binary options traders consider the Ifo Business Climate to be a strong leading indicator of the overall economic optimism in the country.

Last month, the German Ifo Business Climate index came out at 108.6, and this month, the forecast was set slightly lower, at 108.5. Nevertheless, the actual Ifo Business Climate index came out much worse than the market’s expectation, at 107.3.

United States – The Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence Index

Tomorrow, at GMT 3:00 p.m., United States based Conference Board Inc. (CB) will release its consumer confidence index, which measures the changes in the level of a composite index by surveying 5,000 households in the United States.

The large sample size (5,000) of the survey makes it one of the most comprehensive research data regarding the consumer spending pattern in the country. Since consumer confidence is correlated with consumer spending, binary options investors pay close attention to the CB consumer confidence index.

Last month, the CB consumer confidence index reading came out at 96.5 and the forecast for December is currently set at 96.6.

Trade Recommendation for the EUR/USD


Since early December 2015, the EUR/USD has mostly remained in a ranging market conditions. Besides a brief penetration below the 0.800 level on January 5, the EUR/USD mostly ranged between 1.0800 and 1.1010 over the last two months.

Last week, the EUR/USD price once again tested the 1.0800 level, but since the market opened on Monday, the pair has so far retraced around 40 pips. As the German Ifo business climate index has fallen to 107.3, which is much lower than what the market was expecting, the fundamental outlook for the EUR/USD would likely remain bearish this week.

Under the circumstances, it would be recommended that binary options traders consider placing a PUT order for the EUR/USD with their binary options brokers once the price closes below the 1.0770 level.

Recommended Broker: Finpari

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