EURUSD – Weekly Outlook- April 4 2019

EURUSD – Technical Analysis for Binary Options

Introduction

The Euro, unlike other major currencies, ended the first quarter in a negative tone, following a long term bearish trend that started from early 2018. This week we’ll be looking at previous and recent technical and fundamental indicators that are driving the price of the EURUSD.

Fundamentals

Unemployment Rate

The Eurostat published the unemployment rate on Monday 01, April ’19. This macro indicator is determined by halving the number of unemployed workers by a total of the civilian labor force. As a leading indicator for the European economy, a high value is considered negative for the economy, while a low reading indicates a healthy labor force and Euro.

The actual released value came out at 7.8% which is the same as the previous and consensus.

U.S News

ADP Employment Change

On Wednesday 03 April ’19, the Automatic Data Processing Inc released the data for the employment change which measures the number of employed personalities in the US.

A greater than anticipated interpretation of this indicator is seen to impact purchaser spending and consequently positive for the USD, while a low reading, on the other hand, is considered to indicate bearish viewpoint towards the USD.

The actual released value came out 170K, which is less than the previous and consensus of 183K and 197K respectively.

Technical

EURUSD: Monthly Charts

EURUSD - Monthly Chart - April 4 2019

The EURUSD has maintained a bearish outlook starting from a collapse of hidden bullish accumulation in April 2018. From consecutive bearish monthly bars, the pair has transitioned to quarterly bearish trend, which a much longer time frame.

EURUSD: Weekly Chart

EURUSD - Weekly Chart - April 4 2019

The EURUSD has maintained a bearish outlook starting from a collapse of hidden bullish accumulation in April 2018. From consecutive bearish monthly bars, the pair has transitioned to quarterly bearish trend, which a much longer time frame.

EURUSD: Daily Chart

EURUSD - Daily Chart - April 4 2019

The above daily chart shows alternating bullish and bearish swings starting with a long bullish bar on 25 January ’19, followed by a bullish accumulation on 27 Jan ’19. The bullish swing collapsed to a collapse of hidden bullish pressure on 31 Jan ’19 for a 1.71% decline in foreign exchange of the euro. Following another breakdown of bullish accumulation on 04 Mar ’19 the pair plummets by another 1.41%.

A bullish divergence was fortified by a bullish accumulation on 11 March ’19. A failure of the 11 March bullish swing was triggered by an opposite collapse of deciding support of 1.12892. 

Let’s advance further to the 4hour chart for a different perspective to the bullish and bearish waves on the daily chart.

EURUSD: 4HR Chart

We’ll be analyzing the bullish swing that started from 08 March ’19 02:00 with a breakout of bearish accumulation, as confirmation of continuous bullish candles on the daily time block. The most recent bearish trend was initiated by a crash of bullish pressure on 21 March ’19 05:00, confirming the corresponding bearish candles on the daily time frame. All attempts of bulls towards a price recovery was truncated by the failure of bullish accumulation on 26 March ’19 05:00, 28 March ’19 09:00, and 01 April ’19 13:00.

On 03 April ’19 00:00, a bullish accumulation was validated by a breakout of double bearish accumulation, thereby confirming a transition from bearish to a bullish trend.

EURUSD: 1HR Chart

Zooming way down to the 1hour time frame, reveals the last bearish trend of Q1 ‘19 in a different light. The pair enters into a descending triangle pattern triggered by alternating bearish and bullish divergence patterns on 26 March ’19 12:00, and 27 March ’19 08:00. Trading within the channel, the pair triggered another bearish hidden divergence pattern on 28 March ’19 11:00. 

Conclusion

Entering the second quarter of 2019, the EURUSD shows bullish sentiment in the form of a technical bullish divergence and a breakout of double bearish accumulatiion, both on the 4hour and daily time frames. We look forward to consecutive bullish closing candles with projected long target at 1.13321.

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