EUR/USD Weekly Outlook & Technical – September 16 2020

Last Updated on October 8, 2020

EUR/US Dollar Outlook & Technical Analysis


Amid the US crisis, uncertainty has led the currency in a poor state despite the good economic outcome in the past weeks. 

Let’s analyze the charts of the EURUSD pair, as seen on Binarycent broker.

Euro Zone Fundamentals

The German EW Economic Sentiment:

It is an essential indicator for US binary options traders and investors to access the European economy’s health. They observe the level of diffusion received based on the surveyed carried out by the German Institutional analysts and investors.

An outcome more significant than the forecast is good for the Euro, while a lower result will mean a weaker currency.  

The forecast is 69.7, while the previous data was 71.5.

U.S. Fundamentals

The data on the core retail sales was released by the Census Bureau, which measures the retail levels’ overall sales changes, excluding the automobiles. 

With the outcome of data, the spending trend can be ascertained. If the report’s result is greater than the forecast, it is suitable for the US dollar, while a lower output will be inadequate for the US currency.

EUR vs. USD Long-term Objective: Bullish 

EURUSD Forecast

US Dollar Monthly Chart

EUR vs USD Dollar Forecast - September 16 2020

Monthly Resistance: 1.15698, 1.18523, 1.18640, 1.21545, 1.25558 

Monthly Support: 1.03402, 1.06359, 1.10292, 1.15698

For the past three months, the EUR/US Dollar has been bullish, having closed above the 1.15698 zones since the coronavirus pandemic shook the world’s economy.

The US dollar has been weak since the pandemic began due to a closed economy that limited US dollar use in the International market.

Technically, the 1.18640 resistance levels of 01 June 2018 can likely push the pair down to the previous resistance levels turned into support (1.15698) before we see another bullish surge to the 1.21545 and 1.25558 levels, respectively.

Weekly Chart Bullish

EUR vs USD Dollar Forecast - Weekly - September 16 2020

Weekly Resistance: 1.19207, 1.14963, 1.14222

Weekly Support: 1.07666, 1.08965, 1.08968, 1.11726, 1.12430, 1.16959

The recent bullish accumulation at the support levels of 03 August 2020 (1.16959) took the bulls rally to the bullish accumulation resistance level of 1.19207 before the EURUSD momentum became weak.

The bulls will have to close the price above the resistance levels for another bullish run, and failure may bring in a reversal of trend should the Bears close below the 1.16959 support level. 

The bearish move may expose the 1.14963 levels if the US dollar should grow in strength in the coming weeks.

EURUSD Mid-Term Projections: Bullish Consolidating

Daily Chart

EURUSD Forecast - Daily - September 16 2020

Daily Resistance Level: 1.19657, 1.20111, 1.19163,

Daily Support Level: 1.16960, 1.17969, 1.17543, 1.18497

From our previous reports, you can see the EURUSD pair has been trapped within the resistance and support zones of 1.19163 and 1.17969 for the past trading days.

Can the current bullish surge break through the resistance levels, or will it be another failed attempt?

A possible close above the 1.18647 and 1.19163 resistance may push the price to the 1.20111 levels. If the bullish move should fail and we get a bearish trend from the resistance levels, and the price closes below the 1.17969, support will finally mean that the sellers have total control.

H4 Chart

H4 Resistance Level: 1.200, 1.19657, 1.19051, 1.201144, 1.19656, 1.18829, 1.18646

H4 Support Levels:  1.17288, 1.17649, 1.16940, 1.17820, 1.17530

The regular bullish divergence of 09 September 2020 was able to close above the 1.18829 resistance level but failed to continue with the bullish momentum before the bears pushed the EUR/USD pair back.

At the time of this report, we can see that the bulls are on the retest of the 1.18646 levels; a close above will expose the 1.19656 level. Furthermore, if the bears should control the pair, we may see a sharp drop to the low of 1.17820 as a sign of strength for the US dollar.

Bullish Scenario:

We expect the bullish scenario to continue on the weekly time frame if the bulls can get a close above the psychological level (1.19207) of resistance, attracting more buyers.

Bearish Scenario:

The Bearish scenario is on the H4 time frame as we see a gradual buildup from the daily chart. 

We need a breakout from the 1.17530 low for a downswing of the pair.

Conclusion and Weekly Price Objectives

The trading broker will be paying attention to the fundamentals news coming out this week as the Feds will be meeting once more time before the US elections kick in. 

Many uncertainties await Investors, Institutional traders, and retail traders because of the upcoming election, which may retain Trump’s present administration or replaces the administration. 

We will likely see the US dollar make some gains against the Euro if the support levels give way.

James S. Martin
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