EURUSD Weekly Outlook & Technical – June 18 2020

Last Updated on October 8, 2020

EURUSD Outlook & Technical Analysis for binary options


The COVID-19 pandemic and the surrounding events have affected the capacities of business operations, making some limited in size while some have ceased to operate altogether. 

However, the fear of the second wave of COVID-19 is what other fears as the economy opens up, which may lead to another economy damaged if care is not taking. 

The outcome of this news will help the US binary options broker and other investors make the right decision towards investment.

Euro Zone Fundamentals

The E.U. is faced with the Brexit negotiation with the Great British and how both parties can revive the stalled talks on post-Brexit ties, especially on the free-trade where they are yet to agree with little time left to extend the 2020 deadline deal.

The E.U. leaders shall meet to discuss the proposed recovery fund to repair the economic damage from the COVID-19, and a failure for the leaders to agree on the proposer will be a major setback for E.U.

U.S. Fundamentals

Core Retail Sales data release helps to know the health of the country’s economy by measuring the total value of sales at the retail level and excluding all automobiles. This is a useful gauge of the spending trend within the country, which will help investors in their decision.

When the Actual data released is greater than the forecast, it is good for the economy, but if it is lesser than forecast, it is bad for the currency. This data outcome will help investors in decision making.

The forecast is 5.5% while previous is -17.2%

EURUSD Technical Analysis

EUR vs. USD Long-term Objective: Bearish Correcting 

Monthly Chart

EURUSD Forecast - Monthly Chart - June18

Monthly Resistance Levels: 1.4950, 1.18523, 1.21545, 1.25558

Monthly Support Levels: 1.06359, 1.10292

After months of a bearish ride of EURUSD, have the major currencies come to an end of its downtrend?
The recent months have been good for EUR as it gained some strength against the U.S. dollar after finding support on 02 March and 01 April 2020, respectively (1.066359, 1.10292).

Weekly Chart

EURUSD Forecast - Weekly Chart - June18

Weekly Resistance Levels:  1.14225, 1.14950

Weekly Support Levels: 1.06359, 1.07270, 1.07662, 1.08969

The resistance level of 09 March and 08 June 2020 (1.14950, 1.14225) rejected the price twice as at the writing of this report. The Moving Average as acted as a resistance around the zone. 

If the price fails to close above the resistance level, we may see another bearish move in the coming weeks.

For the past three weeks, the bulls enjoyed an upward trend from the support level of 1.07270 and 1.08969 after a bullish accumulation build-up.

EURUSD Mid-Term Projections: Bullish Correcting

Daily Chart

Daily Resistance Levels: 1.14225

Daily Support Levels: 1.07270, 1.07748, 1.08704, 1.11005, 1.12410

From the daily chart, we can see that the bullish surge to the upside only lasted some days before the resistance level (1.14225) slowed the momentum. From the chart pattern, the price may be in its correcting stage. 

For the trading brokers seeking the next trading opportunity, the price of EURUSD has to close above 1.14225 if the bull’s trend must continue, or the low of bullish engulfing support (1.12410) is taking out for a downtrend opportunity.

H4 Chart

H4 Resistance Levels: 1.14225, 1.13623

H4 Support Levels: 1.08704, 1.09133, 1.12126

The Bullish Engulfing of 27 May 2020 around the support level of 1.09133 gave the momentum for an upsurge in the EURUSD rise in price. The MACD also confirmed the uptrend before the bulls rally.

The H4 resistance level is currently showing us a bearish divergence at the 1.14255 level with the MACD indicator, which shows that sellers are pushing price down in the market, and few buyers are also in the market.

Bullish Scenario:

We see the general bullish scenario on the daily time frame and H4. We believe the market to be in her corrective stage now; as days and events unfold, this might be the beginning of a trend reversal.

Bearish Scenario:

The general scenario of EURUSD is a bearish bias based on the Monthly and weekly time frame. However, the major pair had made some gains against the U.S. dollar, and it may last and might not be long before the trend continues on its bearish swing.

Conclusion and Weekly Price Objectives

The reopening of the U.S. economy and the European economy will have a positive impact in the long run. Still, they have a long way to go in the recovery process of all the sectors for maximum impact.

COVID-19 is still a concern for the global economy because some fresh cases are being recorded in some areas, and the speed to develop the vaccine is still on the way for total recovery.

However, steps are taken to open up businesses so that the economy can revive through various transactions across the globe.

We may see a correction of the trend in the coming week before the bullish run continues in the major pair or currencies as they make various decisions towards the recovery process.

James S. Martin
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