Last Updated on October 19, 2020

EUR/USD Dollar Outlook & Technical Analysis


This week shall be an exciting week for binary options broker and other EURUSD investors as they watch and listen to the outcome of the meetings of the two biggest economies in the world, both ECB and the FED.

The European Central Banks and the U.S. Fed are all working on the monetary policies that will stabilize the economy as they deliberate on the interest rates and other issues. 

Euro Zone Fundamentals

We expect the ECB president Christine Lagarde to present her speech about interest rates and other plans to boost the Euro zones. 

From her speech, traders can get clues regarding future monetary policies if favorable for them and investors.

If her speech is more hawkish than expected, it will be favorable for the Euro currency, but it will be bearish for the Euro if the address is not.

U.S. Fundamentals

The Federal Reserve will be meeting (FOMC) and deliberating on its financial and economic condition going through the COVID-19 pandemic and impact on the nation. This meeting will also be an avenue for them to agree on where to set interest rates.

A more hawkish speech from the team is good for the US dollar while a dovish speech is bearish for the currency.

EUR vs. USD Long-term Objective: Bullish 

EURUSD Technical Analysis

Monthly Chart

EURUSD Outlook - Monthly Chart - 9th October 2020


Monthly Resistances: 1.14950, 1.18523, 1.21545, 1.25558

Monthly Supports: 1.102992, 1.06359, 1.03402

The EUSR/USD is still a bullish trend from the Monthly time frame because the rally has not been reversed, and the single bearish candle is not enough to change the direction of price.

The Bulls target might be the previous support levels turned resistance (1.21545), which the EUR/USD pair wants to reach in the coming months.

EURUSD: Weekly Chart Bullish

EURUSD Outlook - Weekly Chart - 9th October 2020

Weekly Resistances: 1.19207, 1.14963

Weekly Supports: 1.17510, 1.16959, 1.11726, 1.08968

The US dollar showed signs of strength some weeks back, closing below the support of 1.17726 before the bulls’ were able to push the price back into the previous range. 

As the new week unfolds, the price may rise to test the 1.19207 levels. Should the bulls close above the resistance, then the US dollar breakout was fake.

However, if the EURUSD pair fails to close above the resistance zones in the coming weeks, we may see another strong move to the downside, which will likely take the price below the 1.16959 levels that will expose the 1.14963 levels.

EURUSD Mid-Term Projections: Bullish Consolidating

EURUSD: Daily Chart

Daily Resistance Level: 1.19163, 1.19657, 1.20111

Daily Support Level: 1.16960, 1.16122

The EUR/USD pair struggled to break out of the range for days to find itself inside it again. 

Can this bullish scenario take price above the resistance zone of 1.19163?

The trading broker needs to get a definite bias not to be at the wrong side of the fence as we wait for the EUR/USD pair to break out of its current consolidation.

A breakout above will drive the price to the 1.19163 levels, while a close below 1.16960 will expose the 1.16122 level and possibly below it.

EURUSD: H4 Chart

H4 Resistance Level: 1.17559, 1.18618, 1.1950, 1.19175

H4 Support Levels: 1.16544, 1.17416, 1.16940, 1.16110 

The 1.17599 levels off 08 September once acted as a support, and now it is a resistance against the bull’s surge. A close above the one will push the price to the resistance level of 1.18618.

However, the 200 moving average could become resistant to the pair’s upward move that may bring in the bears in that region for a downtrend.

Bullish Scenario:

A possible bullish scenario is on the buildup based on the daily time frame since the price found its support at the bearish candle; however, it must overturn the resistance level it is facing now for another swing high.

Bearish Scenario:

The weekly time frame shows the bearish momentum buildup; we expect a bearish scenario to play out once the bullish retest off the resistance should fail.

Conclusion and Weekly Price Objectives

The European Central bank meeting and the Fed meetings will cause waves in the market as they will be releasing the outcome of their meetings almost at the same time.

The trading brokers and other traders should wait for the outcome of their meetings before taking a position.

James S. Martin
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