EUR/USD Weekly Outlook – November 25, 2020

Last Updated on November 25, 2020

EURUSD Forex Forecast

Introduction

The news from the U.S. authority of a possible distribution of the experimented virus vaccine by Pfizer and Moderna is a welcome development for RaceOption investors. 

The coming holiday is another factor that could increase the spread of the covid-19 as a large number of people intend to travel for the Thanksgiving holiday.

Euro Zone Fundamentals

EUR German Import prices m/m

The German German latest report shows how price moves as the consumers purchase the imported goods within the European region. 

This change usually affects those who rely on imported goods heavily.

Data that is greater than the forecast is good for the Euro, while lower data than the forecast is not suitable for the euro currency. 

The forecast is 0.1%, while the previous data was 0.3%

U.S. Fundamentals

U.S. Home sales

The number of homes sold in the last month indicates a healthy economy as some good sales have a ripple effect during the transaction. 

If the number of new residential sales is higher than the forecast, it is suitable for the dollar, but if the number is lower than forecast, the U.S. dollar will go bearish.

Forecast 972K while the previous was 959K

EURUSD Long-term Objective: Bullish 

EURUSD Technical Analysis

Monthly Chart

Monthly Chart of EURUSD - November 25 2020

Monthly Resistance: 1.20830

Monthly Support: 1.15730

The EURUSD pair on the monthly chart still has the bullish momentum in its gear as we progress in the last month of the year 2020. 

The year will be remembered for the global crisis it faced during the COVID-19 pandemic and the global lockdown that shut down the business world.

The Bullish trend is expected to continue once the bulls can close above the resistance zone of 1.20830 with a strong bullish candle indicating a total control of the bullish trend.

It is also possible for the short position traders to resist the bulls at the resistance levels for a downward move. If we get a close below the support level of 1.15730, which will mean a change of trend on the monthly time frame.

Weekly Chart Bullish

Weekly Chart of EURUSD - November 25 2020

Weekly Resistance: 1.19695

Weekly Support: 1.16010

The weekly resistance level of the EUR/USD pair is under pressure as the bulls are pushing for a possible breakout above the 1.19695 zones to continue the trend. 

The stochastic signal line shows that the pair is in an overbought region, and there may be a retracement of the pair in some weeks to come. A close below 1.16010 will attract the sellers into the market.

Daily: Ascending Triangle

Daily Chart of EURUSD - November 25 2020

D1 Resistance: 1.19188

D1 Support: 1.16009, 1.17445

The daily resistance level of 1.19188 will have to hold and reject the price’s advancement if the ascending triangle pattern fails, breaking out above the resistance for a bearish run towards the support of 1.16009.

However, if the bulls can break-through the overhead resistance, the buyers will rally the price higher to another level. 

With the signal line dropping from the stochastic indicator while the price is still rising, this may be a regular bearish divergence for a fall in price or a hidden divergence buildup for a trend continuation.

H4 Chart

H4 Chart of EURUSD - November 25 2020

H4 Resistance Level: 1.18907

H4 Support Levels: 1.18144

A view from the four-hour chart shows that the EUR/USD pair’s price ranges between the 1.18907 and the 1.18144 level, waiting for a specific direction for a breakout above or break down below.

A move downwards will bring the bears into the market, while a movement above the resistance will attract long positions to be opened for a buy.

Bullish Scenario:

A general bullish scenario can be seen based on the weekly time frame as the pressure to close above the resistance zones of 1.19695 is building.

Bearish Scenario:

A bearish scenario based on the four-hour time frame may indicate an early reversal from the bullish trend if they fail to break the higher above the resistance zones (1.18907). 

We may see the Bears takeover from the resistance levels in days to come.

Conclusion and Weekly Price Objectives

Institutional traders, binary brokers, investors, and retail traders are optimistic that the rapid distribution of the virus vaccines by the U.S. authority will help reduce the virus’s speed from spreading fast and how the economy can be robust again.

The covid-19 cases in the U.S. remain a threat to the economy. New infections are on the increase while that of Euro is also on the rise as measures are taken by the authorities through lockdown procedures to reduce the virus’s rapid spread.

James S. Martin
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