EUR/USD Weekly Outlook – November 13, 2020

Last Updated on November 13, 2020

EURUSD Currency Forecast

Introduction

The COVID-19 Pandemic is not over as we see the Euro zones lock down some parts of the region to curb the virus’s widespread. 

The U.S. election came with its own story, a victory for Joe Biden as the United States of America’s elected president. 

Binary options trading broker’s interest in all these events is to see how the market has reacted and what to expect next?

Euro Zone Fundamentals

ECB President Lagarde speaks:

The European central bank meeting with the president is about the monetary policy and the interest rate decision. During her public speech, trading brokers, investors, and other traders try to scrutinize possible conclusions regarding the interest rate clues.

If the president’s speech is hawkish, it is suitable for the Euro, but it won’t be good for the currency if it is not.

U.S. Fundamentals

FED chair Powell speaks:

The chairperson Jerome Powell has more influence on the country’s currency as the central bank’s head. The panel discussion is about the monetary policy and how it will influence the banks’ decision in the coming days. 

Nadex Exchange Traders will want to understand the undertone of the interest rates the policymakers arrived at during their meeting.

If the president’s discussion is more hawkish than expected, we shall see the U.S. dollar gain strength.

EURUSD Technical Analysis

Monthly Chart Bullish Swing

Monthly Chart of EURUSD - November 12 2020

The previous resistance zone of March 02, 2020 (1.18808) acted as support that the EURUSD pair found that led to the bullish surge during the U.S. election period. We need to see the bullish run close above the 1.20114 resistance for the monthly chart’s bullish trend to continue the upward movement. 

If the resistance level becomes a more vital zone for the bulls and cannot turn the area into support, we shall see the bears push back the zone’s price.

EURUSD: Weekly Chart Bullish

Weekly Chart of EURUSD - November 12 2020

Weekly Resistances: 1.20114, 1.19207, 1.14222

Weekly Support: 1.117726, 1.12430, 1.16959

The EURUSD pair has been experiencing a wipe saw movement due to the COVID-19 second wave in Europe and the U.S. election effect, which triggered instability in the financial market because the events are significant to the global market. 

The pair had not broken through the range it established for weeks since the price cannot close above the 1.20114 level or close below the support level of 1.16959.

The two levels of support and resistance are the market’s psychological levels that the trading broker will be watching for a significant move in the future.

The two significant central bank monetary policies’ outcomes will determine the EURUSD pair’s direction as traders await their decision on the interest rate.

Daily Chart

Daily Chart of EURUSD - November 12 2020

From the daily chart time frame, we can see that the support zone of September 25, 2020 (1.16122) held, having rejected the bear’s swing at that level. If the bullish rise from the support can close above the resistance zones, we shall see the bulls rally to continue.

However, the resistance zones had been tested multiple times, and the levels rejected the bull’s advancement around the zones. 

The question is, can the Bears bears hold their own? 

The answers shall be known as we see events unfolding regarding the lockdown in some parts of the Euro due to the second wave of COVID-19 and central bank monetary policy decisions.

A rejection from the resistance will mean that the price would fall towards the 1.17712  support level as we expect the stochastic signal line to drop from the overbought zone.

H4 Chart

H4 Chart of EURUSD - November 12 2020

H4 Resistance Level: 1.18866, 1.18807

H4 Support Levels: 1.16016, 1.16110 

A view from the H4 chart shows the EURUSD exchange rate finding resistance around 1.18880 and support level of 1.16016. We may see the bearish swing come to play from the resistance level if the stochastic indicator signal is right for a short position.

However, should the uptrend continue, we may see the bulls push above the resistance level of 1.18866 and surge higher for the continuation of the trend?

Bullish Scenario:

A general bullish scenario based on the monthly time frame will attract more buyers should they close above the resistance levels of 1.20114.

Bearish Scenario:

A general bearish scenario based on the four-hour time frame may happen if the resistance level holds to push back the Bulls rally from the 1.18866 zones.

Conclusion and Weekly Price Objectives

The U.S. election came with its drama that led to the victory of Joe Biden as the elected president of the United States of America. At the same time, we see the team of Donald Trump going to the court challenging the elections in some states. 

The EURUSD pair gained an upward movement at the end of the week, and it’s at the resistance level, a breakthrough may happen around the zone unless the momentum weakens, and we may see the bears push back the price this new week.

 

James is based in London ( United Kingdom )
He has been a professional trader for over 5 years.
Currently, he works as forex analyst for different investment companies, and also the main author at USBinaryOptions.com
James S. Martin
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