EURUSD Weekly Outlook – March 19 , 2021

Last Updated on March 20, 2021

EURUSD Forex Forecast

Introduction

It is an exciting week for the brokers such as Race Option as they await feeds from the central banks on its response to inflation levels in the Euro zones and that of the USA. 

News from the Eurozone has been positive on some aspects, while the covid19 vaccine becomes an issue in some zones.

EURO News  

Germany’s Economy Sentiment

Germany’s ZEW sentiment would either be optimistic if the indication is above 0.0, while a sign that it’s lower than 0.0 would be pessimism. 

This survey is carried out among 300 German analysts and investors to rate the economy’s general outlook in the past few months (6).

 An outcome greater than expected is good for the currency, while a lower result is not a positive sign for the currency.

Actual 74.0 while forecast was 72.0, and previous was 69.9

The positive outcome is as a result of the PMI manufacturing sector and other favorable indicators from the Euro zones, which boost consumers’ confidence and investors in the 

zones. 

U.S. News CORE RETAIL SALES

The weather has not been helpful to the retail sales report as it drops by 3.0% of the previous month as most parts of the state were hit by snow. 

However, some Americans receive stimulus checks of about $1400.

The data focus on differences in the total value of sales at the retailing level and not including the automobiles. Therefore, if Actual data is more significant than expected, it is suitable for the U.S. dollar, while weaker data will send the U.S. dollar bearish.

Actual data -2.7%, Forecast 0.2% while Previous was 81.3%

EURUSD Technical Analysis

EURUSD Long-term Overview: Possible Bearish Trend

 Monthly Chart

EURUSD Monthly Chart - 19th march 2021

Monthly Resistance Levels:  1.21545, 1.25558

Monthly Support Levels: 1.14950, 1.10292, 1.08288

The bearish move for this month is still holding as the bears kept pressuring the 1.9198 level for a close below the zone to take the price to the previous resistance level of March 02, 2020 (1.14950) that has turned into support.

We expect the price to test the support zone of 1.14950 in the future and will likely attract the Bulls who may want to take over the market from the area should they have the momentum.

Weekly Chart Bullish

EURUSD weekly Chart - 19th march 2021

Weekly Resistance Level: 1.23497, 1.25000

Weekly Support Level: 1.19521, 1.17000

The EURUSD pair is going bearish since the price fails to close above the resistance zones of February and January 2021(1.23497). The bears have dominated the market, having seen a clear divergence pattern on the RSI indicator. 

As the months unfold and sentiments shift towards a more robust U.S. economy, we will likely see the U.S. dollar getting stronger amid the second wave of COVID-19.

Daily Chart Projections: Extended Bearish Trend

EURUSD daily Chart - 19th march 2021

Daily Resistance Level: 1.23496, 1.21896, 1.19886

Daily Support Level: 1.18358

After days of bullish accumulations at the 1.21561 levels, the bears were able to breakdown the support level with a strong bearish engulfing candle that push the EUR vs. US Dollar pair down to the support level of 1.18358.

The 1.19521 level was previously a support level before the price broke through it. Now we expect that zone to act as a resistance to cost for a bearish move down. However, should the bears fail to push down the price, we may see a bounce for an upward rally from the zone’s bulls. 

Bullish Scenario:

The Bulls may get an edge in the market in the coming days if the support level where the price is can hold on the daily time frame at the report’s writing. If the zone can prove relevant for the bulls, we shall see a bullish run to the high of 1.21896.

Bearish Scenario:

The Bears’ dominance on the weekly time frame rejected every upward advancement of the bulls from the high of 1.21896.

Conclusion and Weekly Price Objectives

The U.S. dollar is likely to regain more strength as we see the government are giving their citizens money to boost spending. The covid19 vaccines program is effective as more people are getting vaccinated and the rate of infected persons drops. 

The Euro zones are equally responding better also as we see that manufacturing companies are picking up.

We anticipate an extension of the bearish trend after a correction of the weekly time frame, and the rate of inflation will determine the outcome of the monetary policies.

 

James S. Martin
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