EUR/USD – Weekly Outlook- 18 July 2019

EURUSD Outlook & Technical Analysis for Binary Options

Introduction

The EURUSD is one of the most traded currency pairs on major binary options broker platforms has been showing bullish optimism on the longer time frames following investors speculation on monetary easing.

Let’s see go-ahead to analyze the basic technical price patterns driving the price of the pair as well as major fundamental events.

EURUSD Fundamentals

EURO NEWS: Eurozone Trade Balance

 It gauges the variation within imported goods and services in a given period.

The 16 July ’19 reading was released at 23.0B, higher than the previous reading of 15.7 B on 18 June ’19.

The higher reading shows an increase in exported goods & services compared to import.

USD NEWS

US Crude Oil Inventories

The EIA-Energy Information Administration gauges the weekly change in the number of barrels of commercial crude oil retained by US firms. Inventory levels affect petroleum prices and consequently, inflation rate.

An increase in crude oil inventory signifies a decline in demand and weaker crude oil prices.

EURUSD Technical

EURUSD: Monthly Chart

EURUSD Monthly Chart - July 17 2019

We’ll approach the major currencies, EURO, and USD following a top-down overview. The pair came out of a long term bearish trend after breaking out of a collection of selling resistance on 03 June ’19 and setting support at 1.11071.

After the closing price of the month of June, the bears drove the Euro price lower to retrace the earlier gains. However, upon entering the previous resistance range of 1.12648, the price began a recoil to the upside, while establishing a monthly low of 1.11688 at press time.

EURUSD: Weekly Chart

EURUSD weekly Chart - July 17 2019

Notice the sequence of regular bullish divergence patterns on 12 November ’18 and 03 June ’19, which indicates exhausted selling pressure, and a highly probable change in polarity from selling to buying influence.

Although the EURUSD forex exchange broke below support on 01 July ’19 (1.14122), the bullish presence persists as the RSI indicates higher lows between the months of June and July as shown above.

EURUSD: Daily Chart

The regular bearish divergence pattern signaled on 01 July ’19 gave early warning sign for a bearish trend as the pair finally broke below hidden bullish supports on 01 July ’19 for about 0.77% price decline.

On 10 July ’19, an opposing hidden bullish divergence pattern was signaled simultaneously with a breakout of double bearish accumulation on 10 July ’19, establishing support at 1.11934.

From the above daily chart, the EURUSD is enclosed within a resistance (1.12858) and support (1.11998), and the price can go either way, although a breakout to the upside is most probable.

EURUSD: 4HR Chart

A view from the 4hour time frame reveals a breakdown of the earlier mentioned resistance and support levels of 1.12858 & 1.11998.

Notice the regular bullish divergence pattern signaled just as the EURUSD comes out of the oversold area (09 July ’19 08:00), along with a breakout of bearish accumulation on 10 July ’19 00:00.

The bears replied with an opposite regular bearish divergence on 15 July ’19 06:00, followed by another breakdown of bullish accumulation on 16 July ’19 20:00.

The breakout of bearish accumulation on 17 July ’19 08:00 confirms our bias to go long on the EURUSD pair.

EURUSD: 2HR Chart

Similar to the 4hour chart, the 2hour chart presents great swing trading opportunities, starting from a collection of buying pressure on 09 July ’19 10:00, then followed by a regular bearish divergence pattern on 15 July ’19 06:00.

Conclusion

An increase in selling pressure on 18 July ’19 04:00 erases all the bullish gains from a regular bullish divergence pattern on the updated 1hour chart. If the price close below the 1.11998 support, we should look out for a further decline in the price of the EURUSD.

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