EUR/USD – Weekly Outlook- 1 August 2019

EURUSD Outlook & Technical Analysis for Binary Options


As we come to the end of the month, the EURUSD on top US binary options broker platform exhibit huge bearish outlook coupled with the failure of significant technical supports established by bulls.

The fundamental events tend to favor the USD over the Eurozone. Let’s take a look at few of these news events and technical price patterns driving the EURUSD.


EURO NEWS: France Consumer Spending MoM

French Consumer Spending evaluates the difference in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods expenditures by consumers. The majority of economic activity is accounted for by consumer spending.

A higher than expected reading shows a bullish/positive trend for the EUR, whereas a lower than expected reading suggests a bearish/negative outlook for the currency.

From the latest data released on July 21, the actual reading was 0.4%, while the previous reading was 0.3%.

However, the forecast figure is 0.2%, signaling a bearish trend for the Euro (EUR).USD NEWS

U.S. (ADP) Nonfarm Employment 

The ADP Nonfarm Employment is a significant report that traders keep on their watch list. It is a gauge of monthly variation in nonfarm, and private employment.

It is based on payroll data of roughly 400,000 U.S. business clients.

It is a fundamental indicator that comes with a lot of volatility.

The last reading that was released on July 03 came lower than the forecast, which was considered bearish for the USD. The recent reading 156K on July 31, however, came out greater than the forecast of 150K offering a bullish outlook for the USD.

The EURUSD price plummets by about 0.6% at the time of release.

EURUSD Technical

EURUSD: Monthly Chart

EURUSD Analysis - Monthly chart - August 1 2019

The bullish closing price in June raised the confidence of buyers to increase their position at the July price open. 

However, an increase in sell pressure on the lower time frame, plus the failure of price to go beyond the significant resistance levels on the monthly chart led to the current bearish outlook in July. 

A monthly price close below the critical support at 1.11071 will confirm the selling pressure and an increase in demand for the Greenback.

EURUSD: Weekly Chart

EURUSD Analysis - Weekly chart - August 1 2019

At press time, the bears dominate the bulls as the earlier failure of bullish support (1.14122) in combination with hidden bearish divergence on July 01 ’19 from an increase in selling pressure rejected our anticipated regular bullish divergence.

EURUSD: Daily Chart

EURUSD Analysis - Daily chart - August 1 2019

The daily time frame offered great swing trading opportunities for entering both bullish and bearish trades starting with a regular bullish divergence on May 31 ’19 (1.11160) for an increase of about 1.6% and finally 2.1%. 

A regular bearish divergence pattern was flagged on July 01, ’19 initializing the current price decline. The bearish reversal pattern served as confirmation for the breakdown of bullish support on the weekly time frame.

Attempts by the bulls to restore the price via a hidden bullish divergence pattern again failed to a hidden bearish divergence, a confirmation of the bearish trend.

The price of the major currencies Euro vs. USD breaks below the 1.11014 support across global forex exchange brokers, emphasizing an increase in bearish sentiment.


EURUSD Analysis - 4H chart - August 1 2019

A view from the 4hour time frame illustrates a hidden bearish divergence setup and a bearish accumulation pattern on July 18 ’19 20:00, signaling a continuation of the bearish trend. 

The bears increased their grip by breaking below a bullish support 1.12122 on July 22 ’19 12:00 for about 1.3% decline in the exchange rate.


A rejection of selling pressure on July 26 ’19 15:00 established sound support at 1.11120 for a double bottom pattern on July 29 ’19 09:00. The EURUSD rallied above the previous 1.11511 resistance, and we notice a decline in volatility as price entered the MA-200 resistance. 


After approaching the 65-period Moving Average on the 4hour time frame, the EURUSD signaled a hidden bearish divergence pattern which confirms a continuation of the bearish trend on July 31 ’19 00:00 putting the EURUSD in a general bearish trend.

Being the last week in July, the bearish trend will most likely persist.

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