EUR/USD Likely to Remain Bearish as US Manufacturing is Set to Rebound

Eurozone – M3 Money Supply

On Tuesday at GMT 8:00 a.m., the European Central Bank will release the year-over-year M3 money supply figure. It measures the changes in the total quantity of issues currency in the greater Europe. The M3 consists of all hard currency in circulation as well as the bank deposits, including in the central bank.

As the M3 money supply increases, it makes funds available for investments. However, an excess money supply can also lead to inflation and liquidity trap in the economy. Hence, the European Central Bank often adjust their interest rate policy based on the current M3 money supply situation. As a result, binary options traders consider the quantity of the M3 to act like a leading indicator of the future direction of the economy.

Last month, the Eurozone M3 money supply increased by 3.7%. This month, analysts are expecting it to increase by 3.9%.

United States – Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing PMI

On Friday, at GMT 2:00 p.m., the Institute for Supply Management released its manufacturing PMI figure for the United States. The ISM’s US manufacturing PMI measures the level of a diffusion index based on a survey of 400 purchasing managers.

Purchasing managers in the United States are involved in the supply side of the economy. As most companies reduce their expenses and production based on their sales forecast, the survey of purchasing managers reveals the overall optimism of various companies in the country. Hence, binary options investors can easily figure out the sentiment regarding the economic condition in the country from the ISM manufacturing PMI readings.

Last month, the ISM manufacturing PMI for the United States came out at 57.3. The forecast for this month is currently set at 58.2.

EUR/USD Forecast

Since forming a large bearish outside bar (BEOB) on February 16, 2018, the EUR/USD fell by around 890 pips. However, after reaching near the 1.1660 level, it found a strong support. Currently, the EUR/USD is trading just above the support near the 1.1660 level and appearing to test the sharp downtrend line.

The Eurozone M3 Money Supply is set to increase from 3.7% to 3.9% over the last month. On the other hand, analysts are expecting the US ISM Manufacturing PMI to increase from 57.3 to 58.2. Although the Eurozone M3 Money Supply is a positive news for the Euro, the importance of the US ISM Manufacturing PMI is much greater. Therefore, we believe it would set a bearish fundamental outlook for the EUR/USD this week. Therefore, if the EUR/USD closes below the support near 1.1660, it would likely attract additional bearish momentum in the market.

Hence, US binary options traders should look out for trading opportunities below this major support level around 1.1660.

BTC/USD Forecast

Since breaking above the downtrend line in the middle of April, the BTC/USD mostly traded sideways. Over the last six weeks, the BTC/USD mostly traded within the narrow range of 6,450 and 11,800 levels. Currently, the BTC/USD appears to be bearish and heading towards the support around 6,450.

Last Friday, news broke that there is a security breach of the EDU token in Asia. As a result, the Singapore based Huobi exchange suspended all deposits and withdrawals of that token. This panicked cryptocurrency investors who then started selling the BTC/USD in other exchanges to make withdrawals. As a result, the BTC/USD turned bearish. If the effect of this security breach continues to negatively affect the cryptocurrencies, it will likely push the BTC/USD below the 6,450 level.

Hence, US bitcoin traders should look out for trading opportunities below this major support level around 6,450.

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