EURUSD Weekly Outlook – February 4 2022

Last Updated on February 5, 2022

Introduction

The EURUSD trading week will be filled with uncertainty for the binary options exchanges like Nadex as the ECB speech will likely influence the direction of the price as well as the (NFP) Non-farm payroll news will come with high volatility. The fundamentals will give the general bias of the market when the whole anxiety is settled.

EURO and US News

European Central Bank Statement 

The ECB meeting is expected to be hawkish as some analysts think, because of the global hike on rates by the central bank to mop up excess liquidity in the system. 

The interest rate statement is of importance to investors, forex brokers, Institutions, and retail traders who want to know how the statement and economic condition influence their decision on investment as the policymakers offer clues on the future of the currency.

The non-farm payroll (NFP)

The employment change is vital data for the economic health of the county because the data shows the number of people who are engaged and actively working, excluding the farming industries. 

The non-farm payroll data has a higher impact on the forex market and other stocks. Job creation correlates with consumer spending. The new release is usually done on the first Friday of a new month.

The Forecasted data is 145K, while the Previous NFP outcome was 199K.

EURUSD Technical Analysis

EUR vs. USD Monthly Chart Overview: Bullish Swing in resistance Zone

EURUSD monthly chart - Feb 4 2022

Monthly Resistance 11.22510, 1.14828, 1.19002

Monthly Support 1.11214, 1.07745

The EURUSD pair remains bearish as the new month begins with some bullish signs. The bull may want to establish support at the current zone if the can hold the zone. The Bulls movement may be a correction phase of the bearish trend if the price can close above the resistance level of 1.14828.

If the bearish trend is to continue on the monthly time frame, the price needs to break out below the support level of 1.11214 and that will expose the lower support level of 1.07745.

Weekly Chart Bullish

EURUSD weekly chart - Feb 4 2022

Weekly Resistance Level: 1.23575, 1.19003, 1.14345

Weekly Support Level: 1.11250, 1.11851, 1.06488, 1.18000

The US dollar increased its gains against the other major when the price broke below the neckline of the EURUSD pair around the support zone of 1.18000. The Bears dominated the market and they have continued to take control of the trend on the weekly chart.

The bears broke below the current support zone of 1.11851 to continue the bearish trend but as at the tie of this report we can see that the price of EURUSD has bounced off from the 1.11250 zones and the price is within and above the previous support level of 1.11851. could this be a false breakout? With time the answer will be cleared to the forex brokers.

Daily Chart Projections: Bullish 

Daily Resistance Level: 1.14846, 1.17000

Daily Support Level: 1.11850, 1.1100

The price broke out of the bearish flag pattern for the price to continue the bearish run that has trended for weeks. The new trading week started with a bullish reversal pattern that has attracted the Bulls. However, the ECB statement on monetary policy coming up during the week will express their decision on the Euro because investors, institutions, forex brokers, and retail traders will be able to trade in the direction of the major pairs.

Bullish Scenario:

A bullish scenario is likely going to happen on the daily time frame as we can notice a morning star chart pattern which will likely take the price up to the resistance level of 1.14846.

Bearish Scenario:

The bearish trend dominates the time frames and we expect the trend to continue if the correction phase does not end up becoming a full-blown uptrend. The correction may form another bearish flag on the daily chart before we see another breakout.

Conclusion and Weekly Price Objectives

The major pair EURUSD are having key fundamentals during the week, therefore we expect high volatility in the market when the news is released. 

We can get a wisp saw movement if the outcome does not favor the US dollar and Euro. The high rise of inflation is a concern for the Eurozone as the ECB states its decision on 

rate hikes.

The impact of the ECB president Christine Lagarde speech will influence the Euro as market participants are factoring ways to price in the ECB rate increase in the coming 

quarter.

James S. Martin
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