BTCUSD – Weekly Outlook- December 8 2018

BTCUSD – Technical Analysis for US Binary Options

Introduction

It is getting more obvious that the cryptocurrency asset class is not going to close on a positive note this year as holders of private keys are becoming risk-averse. The month of December comes with a few fundamental events, which will most serve as fuel for further shorting opportunities. Read on for an overview of these events and how they affect the Bitcoin USD price.

Fundamentals

Review of Past and Upcoming Events in the Bitcoin Community

BTC/USD technical analysis for US binary options

Considering the daily Bitcoin chart above, the bitcoin price plummets as fundamental announcements are taken by speculator with a bearish sentiment.

26 November, 2018 – Chainers Seoul South Korea 

The last day of the event resulted in a bearish closing bar of the Bitcoin chart, consequently leading to further decline in bitcoin price. Similarly, the conference which took place in Seoul South Korea couldn’t serve as a catalyst for a bullish recovery as the market was already in a bearish sentiment.

This was a 2days summit and a week business tour between November 26th and 30th 2018 at the InterContinental Grand Seoul Parnas, South Korea. Mainstream media exposure was a major focus of the summit.

30 November, 2018 – CME: Last Trade 

This event converges with a breakdown of bullish accumulation on the daily chart. Such combination of technical and fundamental events is considered to generate a low risk sell trading opportunity. 

Upcoming Events

December 12 2018: Bakkt Launch

Bakkt, an Intercontinental Exchange’s will be officially launching its cryptocurrency trading platform on December 12, pending regulatory approval. We’ll be looking out for breakout or breakdown patterns for technical housekeeping on the 4hour and 2-hour charts.

December 28 2018 – CME: December Last Trade 

Daily Chart of the BTC/USD

Coming up on the 28th of this month is the Bitcoin futures Last trade date, whereby trading terminates at 4 PM GMT. This event being the last event for the year is very significant as it may offer clues on the direction of Bitcoin chart in the coming New Year.

Again, taking a close look at the daily chart again, this time around we consider the most important technical patterns that serve as triggers in the previous week and in the current week. The triple bearish accumulation pattern formed on November 17 implied a huge bearish pressure, bring the bitcoin price to a low of $3535.10 on November 25.

The hopes of a bullish recovery triggered by a breakout of bearish accumulation on November 28 was dashed by an opposite breakdown of bullish accumulation. This triggers the continuation of the bearish trend as illustrated on the chart above. As a way of reinforcing the bearish trend, another chart patterns breakout of the rising channel was triggered on December 3. This is very significant being the first day of the month, for a projected 25.97% price drop, for a 10.39% risk.

Conclusion and Projection

2-HR Chart of the BTC/USD

A bearish hidden divergence pattern is triggered on December 6, which was later followed by another bearish accumulation, thereby reinforcing the bearish trend. 

The more recent breakdown of bullish accumulation illustrated above offers a sell trade with a risk to reward ratio of 2.0 by a 6.02% price drop.

Following our analysis thus far, it’s obvious we still maintain a bearish stand on the BTCUSD pair. However, the coming months in the new year may trigger reversal price patterns, only time will tell. Also, taking long buying trades in this falling market may be risky as we would suggest not catching a falling knife.

Top Platform to trade Bitcoin

US Regulated Platform: NADEX

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