BTCUSD – Weekly Outlook- December 25 2018

BTCUSD – Technical Analysis for Binary Options

Introduction

Towards the end of the Year 2017, traders’ psychology was mainly that of a fear of missing out. Fast forward to 2018, this fear of missing out gradually transitions into a fear of being wrong, as the cryptocurrency market goes into a crypto winter. This week, we’ll be looking into a few fundamental events at paly in the space, as well as technical setups, starting with the monthly chart below. 

BTCUSD: Monthly Chart

BTCUSD weekly analysis for crypto brokers - December 25

The bearish engulfing pattern triggered at the close price on January 2018 initiates the start of the bearish trend shown above. The months of February and March closed triggering a series of bearish accumualtion patterns indicating a build up of selling pressure. Despite the bearish close of April, price could not breach the bearish accumulation resistance, leading to an inncrease in bearish sentiment on all crypto brokers such as RaceOption.

Fundamentals

Bloomberg: Wall Street Giants Postpone Entering Crypto Industry Amid Falling Prices

A falling Bitcoin price slows down participation of institutional investors as Wall Street giants like Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Barclay plc and Citigroup suspend their ideas to further actively join the crypto industry following a slump in the value of cryptocurrencies as reported on Bloomberg Sunday, the 23rd December.

BTC/USD Daily Chart Technical and Fundamental 

Early signs of an exhausted bearish trend from a daily chart perspective were triggered on 28 November. The bullish support level could not be sustained as an opposite breakdown of bullish accumulation was triggered on 30 November bringing the pair to a 20.1% low.

A bullish regular divergence pattern was triggered and later confirmed on 16 December, resulting in a 32.5% retracement of the bearish trend. At the point of putting this article together, the pair signals a hidden bearish accumulation pattern with resistance at 4099.80, which is a sign of continuation of the bearish trend.

Upcoming Events

December 28 2018 – CME: December Last Trade 

After the Christmas holidays in major parts of the world, the CME last trade date is 28 December. We expect to see a buildup of volatility and clarity of the BTCUSD trend direction.

2-HR Chart of the BTC/USD

The above 2hour chart started by triggering a bullish accumulation pattern which sends the pair up by 11.0%. A bearish engulfing and breakdown of bearish accumulation patterns lead to a slowing of the bullish trend, but still maintains the pair above the 65 period moving average. A final breakdown of bullish accumulation sends the pair crashing down by 8.5% and forcing the pair to trade below the MA-65.

Conclusion and Projection

As we slowly but surely approach the year 2019, a bearish closing month within the price range of 4290.00 and 3535.10 will confirm a bearish accumulation pattern by the end of the year. This will serve as a directional trigger, however, we only enter breakdown of bullish accumulatio pattern on 4hour and daily charts in the direction of the bearish trend.

If the above scenario of bearish accumulation gets triggered at the closing orice of December, then a trigger for change in trend would be a price close above the 4290.00 resistance level from the month chart perspective. This will confirm a long term trend reversal, couple with the pair trading near the 3087.28 and 1852.02 support levels triggered by the double bullish accumulation pattern of July 2017. 

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