Binary Options Analysis – Trade of the Week: GBP/CAD – July 20, 2015

Canada – Wholesale Sales

Yesterday, at GMT 12:30 p.m., the Statistics Canada released the month-over-month wholesale sales data, which measures the changes in the total value of sales made by the wholesale sector in Canada over the past month.

Binary options investors consider the wholesale sales figure to be an important leading indicator of the Canadian economy as retailers tend to place more orders to wholesales when they feel optimistic about their retail sales. Hence, an increase in the wholesale sales signals a growing GDP in the future.

In June, the Canadian wholesale sales grew by 1.7% and the forecast for July was set at an additional 0.1% growth. However, the actual figure came out much lower than what the binary options analysts were expecting, at  -1.0% decline.

United Kingdom – Retail Sales

At GMT 3:15 a.m., the UK’s Office for National Statistics will release month-over-month retail sales figure, which measures the change in the total value of sales made by the retail sector in the country over the past month. However, this figure is adjusted for inflation in order to offer an accurate overview.

Binary options traders consider the UK’s retail sales figure to be one of the main gauges of consumer confidence, which makes up the majority of the overall economic activity in the country. Since consumer spending is directly correlated with consumer confidence, it can signal future economic activity as well.

Last month, the value of UK’s retail sales increased by 0.2% and the forecast for July is set at an additional increase of 0.4%.

Trade Recommendation for the GBP/CAD


Since April 17, the GBP/CAD price has climbed over 2175 pips and formed a well-respected uptrend line in the process.  In fact, the uptrend was so strong that the GBP/CAD price hardly had any major retracement over the past several months.

The only minor retracement it had was during July 7 – 9, when the price declined around 300 pips before resuming the uptrend.

On July 17, the GBP/CAD formed a bearish pin bar, indicating that there might be some bearishness this week after an extended uptrend. Although the GBP/CAD price came very close to the low of the July 17 daily candlestick, 2.0183, so far it did not penetrate below this level.

As the Canadian wholesale sales figure has declined by 1.0% over the past month, it appears that the GBP/CAD price may soon move further north.

From a technical point of view, the GBP/CAD is trading near the upper Bollinger Band and there is a high possibility of a retracement downwards. If the price breaks the low of the pin bar, it may start a retracement towards the uptrend line over the next few days.

Under the circumstances, it is recommended that traders consider placing a PUT order for the GBP/CAD with their US binary options brokers if the price penetrates below the 2.0180 level. On the other hand, if the GBP/CAD price breaks above the 2.0325 level, they should consider placing a CALL order instead.

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