AUD/USD – Technical Analysis for US Binary Options
Australian – Trade Balance
On Tuesday, at GMT 2:30 a.m., The Australian Bureau of Statistics will release the monthly Trade Balance figure, which measures the difference in value between all import and export, including physical goods and intangible services.
Since the demand for export is directly correlated with the demand for the Australian Dollar, US binary options traders analyse the monthly trade balance in order to gauge the strength of the AUD against other major currencies.
Last month, the Australian trade balance figure came out at 1.30 billion and the forecast for this month is currently set a slightly better figure, at 1.75 billion.
United States – ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
On Wednesday, at GMT 3:00 p.m., the US based Institute for Supply Management (ISM) will release its monthly Non-Manufacturing PMI figure, which measures the level of a diffusion index created by surveying purchasing managers. However, the ISM’s PMI figure excludes the non-manufacturing sector.
US Binary options investors consider the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI figure to be a leading economic indicator because purchasing managers have the most updated view of the economy.
Last month, the ISM’s Non-Manufacturing PMI figure came out at 57.6 and the forecast for this month is currently set at a slightly lower figure, at 57.1.
Since December 23, 2016, the AUD/USD has remained very bullish and the price has gone up by around 590 pips since then. However, after the AUD/USD reached a major resistance near the 0.7730 level, it started a retracement, which has so far pushed the price towards the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the last upward swing.
Currently, the AUD/USD is trading near the support area around 0.7600.
As the US ISM non-manufacturing PMI is expected to come slightly lower, but the Australian trade balance is expected to increase from 1.3 billion to 1.75 billion, we believe it would set a bullish fundamental outlook for the AUD/USD this week. Hence, if the support near 0.7600 holds AUD/USD from declining further, there is a good possibility that it would move up towards the resistance around 0.7676.
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